By-election games: Ferrier’s suspension and what it means for Johnson and Partygate

Tactics reveal how desperate SNP and Tories are to avoid recall petitions, says Sean O’Grady

In some ways, Johnson’s case is more serious as it involves the matter of whether a prime minister lied to parliament (PA)

Margaret Ferrier, the former SNP MP for Rutherglen and Hamilton West, has been sanctioned by the House of Commons standards committee for her breach of Covid restrictions, including in the Palace of Westminster. It recommended a suspension of 30 days, which is at the tougher end of such penalties; the Commons as a whole will probably vote to accept the recommendation. But the fate of Ms Ferrier, who is sitting as an independent since losing the SNP whip, carries much wider implications.

What might this mean for Boris Johnson?

There’s good and bad news there. Though ostensibly unrelated, their respective referrals – to the standards committee in Ferrier’s case and the privileges committee in Johnson’s – have their origins in breaking social distancing rules. In some ways, Johnson’s case is more serious as it involves the matter of whether a prime minister lied to parliament.

In that context, the news is discouraging for Johnson, in that the standards committee clearly takes a dim view of lockdown bandits and insisted on punishing Ferrier despite her self-referral to the parliamentary commissioner for standards, and thence to the standards committee (though in truth she had little choice); she described her self-referral as an “indication of remorse”, although she denies putting people in harm’s way when she took a train home to Glasgow despite a positive Covid test.

The standards committee is much larger than the privileges committee, as well as having a different remit – and, uniquely for a select committee, it includes lay members of the public. On the other hand, there is some overlap with the MPs who serve on the privileges committee, and it is their behaviour that is possibly encouraging for Johnson.

Four of the MPs who sit on both committees – three Conservative and one SNP – sought to reduce Ferrier’s suspension so as not to potentially trigger a by-election. Indeed, Bernard Jenkin and other MPs have suggested that the law be changed so as to make it more difficult for recall petitions to be mandatory after a parliamentary suspension.

In short, this indicates that the privileges committee might be similarly split over Johnson’s sanction. That could result in a punishment mild enough to avoid the risk of a by-election, but even if it didn’t, it could encourage Johnson’s supporters in the wider Commons to overturn the recommended punishment in a vote.

What might it mean for Humza Yousaf?

After a bruising leadership campaign, the last thing the new SNP leader and first minister wants is a by-election he’s likely to lose. Ferrier’s Westminster constituency is a classic central-belt Lab-SNP marginal. Traditionally safe for Labour, it fell to Ferrier and the SNP in the 2015 tsunami that saw Labour all but wiped out in Scotland. Labour regained it narrowly in 2017, only for Ferrier to make a comeback in 2019. Her majority of 5,230, or 9.7 per cent, is highly vulnerable to some tactical voting by Tories, and the recent slide in the polls for the SNP and mild renaissance for Scottish Labour also suggest it would be difficult for Yousaf to hold.

Symbolically, a victory would be a huge boost to Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar and his party’s chances of a recovery at both Westminster and Holyrood, firstly by re-establishing Labour’s claim to be the main party of opposition. It will obviously also be encouraging for Keir Starmer’s hopes of picking up several more Scottish seats at the next general election.

What next for Margaret Ferrier?

Her political career already looks to be over. She immediately lost the SNP whip when the scandal broke in 2020, and further embarrassed the party by rebuffing Nicola Sturgeon’s call to quit her seat, so it seems unlikely she will be readopted as an SNP candidate. If she stood as an independent she’d be unlikely to do anything more than damage the SNP’s chances of holding the seat.

Provided her political opponents can gather the 8,092 signatures required to trigger the by-election, Ferrier looks set to be removed from the House of Commons, the third MP to be dealt with in this way.

A recall petition is open for six weeks; electors may sign in person at a signing station, by post, or by proxy. Ferrier could buy time or forestall her fate by appealing to the Independent Expert Panel, though it would be unlikely to delay her case for long enough that it would be swept into the next general election, due by the very end of 2024.