No western leader has succeeded in getting the measure of Vladimir Putin

Ben Wallace was being diplomatic – the whiff of Munich is more of a stench, says Sean O’Grady

Timing is everything for Vladimir Putin when he faces down rival leaders (Reuters)

Though sometimes derided for doing so, Vladimir Putin enjoys posing topless for photographers in some suitably rugged and romantic forest or river setting, his ripped torso a symbol of personal and national muscle. Right now he seems to be acting out his metaphor through some fairly bare-knuckle diplomacy. He is knocking back western leader after western leader, leaving them lying bruised.

German chancellor Olaf Scholz, a man hardly looking for a fight, is the latest to get hurt. Mr Putin and Scholz both know that Russia could strangle the German economy in a week because of its dependence on the Nordstrom gas pipeline. It is only a few days since French president Emmanuel Macron had his dreams of a heroic return to Paris shattered during a stilted conversation across an absurdly large table. Joe Biden chatted away on the phone to Moscow for 62 minutes, but he too gets no concessions.

Putin is adept at playing power games with his counterparts, like some medieval potentate: arriving late, violating protocol, and forcing them to go home empty-handed. This is something Angela Merkel discovered long ago. The former German chancellor, who has a well-known fear of dogs, was once confronted with some Kremlin mutts, the better to intimidate her. Now Putin can use his natural gas reserves to frighten a new and inexperienced German leader.

For a while now, Mr Putin’s methods have wrongfooted the west, leaving its leaders looking foolish. But the west seems still unable to get into the Russian leader’s head to see where he’s going. It’s fair to say that the struggle to protect Ukraine was lost eight years ago, when former US president Barack Obama (and vice president Biden), failed to stop the annexation of Crimea. Alongside this, the cyberattacks on Estonia, the troops propping up cronies in Belarus and Kazakhstan, interference in Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia and Syria and with incidents such as the Salisbury poisonings, Putin’s agents have been testing the west’s resolve for many years and finds it weak.

Vladimir Putin is a master of mind games (Reuters)

Calculating, opportunistic and masterful at the art of deception as Putin may be, the west has allowed itself to be outmanoeuvred because it is hopelessly divided. No two of the major powers within Nato, or the EU for that matter, seem to be able to agree on a single message delivered by one leader, ideally Mr Biden. The US president has gaffed, and the British, French and Germans have jostled to see who can be the “Putin-whisperer”. Diplomacy is turning into a competition for which leader should become the west’s spokesperson.

Shrewdly, Mr Putin has also exploited western tensions with China to secure the backing of Beijing, which will be useful diplomatically and economically when the time for sanctions come. Put crudely, the west can fight a Cold War with China or Russia, but a Cold War with both superpowers is too much. The only source of solace is that Donald Trump isn’t still around talking about disbanding Nato.

The “whiff of Munich” apparently detected by defence secretary Ben Wallace has been much discussed and spun. One difference is that the appeasement of 1938 was at least conscious and organised. The appeasement efforts of 2022 do not even live up to that standard. Like Czechoslovakia after the UK and France failed to save it, Ukraine seems destined to be bullied, divided, occupied and dismembered, leaving a rump state for Russia. Mr Wallace was being diplomatic; the whiff of Munich is more of a stench.