Could Tories really join with Reform and ‘unite the right’?

With Nigel Farage riding high in the opinion polls, some senior Tories are considering their options in the event of further election defeats, as Sean O’Grady explains

In unguarded remarks earlier this year, Robert Jenrick privately expressed himself to be in support of the somewhat underground “unite the right” movement that aims to combine the Conservatives and Reform UK into one supposedly unbeatable political force.

Now, longstanding Nigel Farage ally Gawain Towler has opened up the debate on the other side. Reform’s former communications director suggests the parties could merge, in part, after the next election. It’s a project that some will be pursuing from now until the general election and after, but has met with some resistance…

What did Gawain Towler say?

Reflecting on Jenrick’s ambition as a former Tory leadership candidate, Towler remarked that some Tory MPs would seek ties with Reform because they wouldn’t wish to demean themselves by leading a useless “rump party” in the shadow of a huge bloc of Reform MPs (which would be the outcome of the next election if current opinion polls are correct). Drawing a disparaging comparison to Liberal Democrats leader Sir Ed Davey, Towler said: “This is not a man who’s gonna spend his time on trampolines and going down water flumes as a third-party leader.” He added: “I could possibly see him bringing a small handful over with him, but it could work; there are all sorts of ways.”

What does Jenrick think?

He’s a bit cagey. He’s outwardly loyal to Kemi Badenoch, but is putting himself around a lot at the party conference on the topic of immigration – what else? – and has gone even further than his own party line and Reform UK by advocating “net emigration” from the UK to create a “breathing space”.

Not so long ago, he was up a ladder tying a union jack to a lamppost (ironically, a bit of an Ed Davey-style stunt). He’ll be making a platform speech centered on “stopping two-tier justice and restoring trust in our justice system” and may come out for Lucy Connolly as a free speech martyr (she was convicted of posting a racist tweet) as well as dishing out some lurid words about migrant crime.

What does Jenrick really think?

Very much what Gawain Towler does. We know this because back in March, before the big Reform successes in the local elections and gains in the polls, he was caught talking to some students in a “hot mic” moment. Positing a situation where Reform “becomes a permanent or semi-permanent fixture on the British political scene”, he said: “You head towards a general election where the nightmare scenario is that Keir Starmer sails in through the middle as a result of the two parties not being united. I don’t know about you, I am not prepared for that to happen. I want the right to be united, and one way or another, I am determined to do that.”

Of course, with Reform on about 33 per cent in the polls, more than twice as much as the Tories, that scenario is coming true – although such is Reform’s current position that it could almost win a majority and form a government without any help from Jenrick at all.

Could a tie-up happen?

This side of an election, deals and pacts seem unlikely. Many Conservatives, such as Jacob Rees-Mogg, sympathise with the Jenrick thesis, but others loathe Reform and could never accept being associated with them. Similarly, there are many ex-Tories in Reform who would contemplate the idea in some form, including recent defector Nadine Dorries. But the majority of Reform supporters follow the line preached by Farage, Zia Yusuf and Arron Banks: that they hate the Tories for their failures on immigration and tax, and want to “destroy” them. Also, they don’t want to be a Tory Party Mark II.

One case for a post-election merger is that the Tories bring ministerial experience to Reform, which is a mass movement. The downside is the Tories’ image as a divided, failed, dying party.

Kemi Badenoch has rejected any talk of an electoral pact with Reform UK at the next election, but a poll published on Monday suggests this is out of step with Tory members. The YouGov poll for Sky News found 64 per cent support among Conservatives for a deal in which Reform and the Tories would not stand candidates against each other in target seats, while 31 per cent do not. And almost half of Tory members – 46 per cent – would support a full-blown merger with Reform UK, against 48 per cent who would oppose a merger.

Any other obstacles?

Plenty. Both sides would be split on economic and legal immigration policy detail, possibly on the NHS, on wanting more Brexit, and on Ukraine.

It also assumes that Reform and Conservative members and voters would back a coalition or merged party, but many won’t. In fact, the combined electoral result might be less than the sum of the parts as one-nation Tories peel away to the Lib Dems and Labour while disaffected Reform supporters go to more extreme fringe groups, such as Advance, or just stay at home.

Who would lead a combined Reform-Tory party?

Farage, Jenrick and, yes, Boris Johnson are the contenders. Difficult to see them working together.

Will it happen?

Only if Farage spies some advantage in it; at present, there’s not much to be gained by him from “uniting” with the Conservative Party.