Are the Tories really facing their worst general election result since 1997?

Lowest share of the vote since the 19th century and a wipeout of seats in line with New Labour’s rise... is this the beginning of the end of the Conservatives as Britain’s dominant political party, asks Sean O’Grady

There are still imponderables... eg what if Rishi Sunak is ousted between now and the general election? (AP)

A fresh, in-depth and fairly innovative poll conducted by YouGov suggests the market research company’s new MRP model finds Keir Starmer would win a 120-seat majority, were the general election to be held tomorrow. The Tories would be left with barely more seats than they had in the New Labour landslide in 1997, and the lowest ever vote share for the Conservatives in a British general election since the time of the Great Reform Act of 1832 and the dawn of modern democratic politics.

Could it be that bad?

Yes. The previous nadirs for a Tory electoral performance (in share of vote) were recorded by John Major (1997, 30.1 per cent), Ted Heath (October 1974, 35.8 per cent), Winston Churchill (1945, 35.2 per cent) and you have to go all the way back to Robert Peel in 1834 and the Duke of Wellington in 1832, both on 29.2 per cent, to see how badly Rishi Sunak's prospective 26 per cent will look in a long historical perceptive.