Portillo's 'perfect assassination' reopens Tory civil war

As political knifings go, it was a classic of the genre. The dagger slipped swiftly but firmly between the shoulder blades, the timing perfect, the victim left in bloody silence. And all in the full glare of the media spotlight.

When Michael Portillo launched his astonishing attack on Iain Duncan Smith yesterday, it represented the final end of an uneasy truce that has existed since he was defeated in the Tory leadership contest 17 months ago.

In terms of 21st-century assassination attempts, it could not be faulted. By choosing Radio 4's The World At One programme, a favourite of political journalists, and deciding to attack on a Friday, Mr Portillo knew he would guarantee maximum exposure.

The timing ensured that not just today's media but also the Sunday newspapers, which set the tone for the week ahead, will devour the open declaration of Tory civil war with gusto.

More importantly, with Parliament returning from its recess break on Monday, Conservative MPs will be reading fresh reports of infighting this weekend with a mixture of dread and despair.

The contrast between Mr Portillo's deadly interview yesterday and the nervous laughter of Mr Duncan Smith on Thursday's Today programme could not be greater. Perhaps Mr Portillo's most devastating put-down was that Mr Duncan Smith preferred to surround himself with "short grasses", a reference to the intellectual calibre at Central Office.

Equally dismissive was his line that replacing Mark MacGregor with Barry Legg was "trading down". The leader's supporters will see that as an example of the Portillo hubris that led to his defeat in 2001.

But the latest crisis has perhaps provided the opening Mr Portillo has been waiting for. After about a year of keeping his counsel, he became politically active again last autumn, making speeches, writing articles and popping up in the House of Commons almost daily.

Mr Portillo appeared at the Labour Party conference for a debate with David Blunkett and is a now a regular guest on the BBC's new politics programme The Week. His appetite for politics, if not power, is clearly undiminished.

The row over gay adoption that led to the resignation of John Bercow before Christmas saw Mr Portillo come close to plunging the knife into his leader. But a stalemate ensued and Mr Duncan Smith thought his dramatic "back me or sack me" declaration had put an end to the Portillo leadership challenge gossip.

While admitting that he will never now lead the Tories, the former prince over the water is clearly determined to be the kingmaker, wielding influence if not direct power in a modernised party.

Kenneth Clarke, the natural successor as leader, is still wary of the Portillo camp but some accommodation could emerge. More of a problem is the ill-health of Mr Clarke's wife, Gillian.

Mr Portillo's cold analysis of the current turmoil, that this is an entirely self-inflicted crisis for the Tory leader, will have won the agreement of many MPs. For just as the last serious bout of in-fighting followed Mr Duncan Smith's decision to sack David Davis as chairman in the summer, the latest flare-up stems solely from his decision to sack Mr MacGregor, the party chief executive. Mr Davis was seen as a threat from the Thatcherite right, while Mr MacGregor was seen as a threat from the Portillista left.

But what unites both sackings is the fact that the manner of the deed as much as the deed itself was what caused offence. Mr Davis won widespread sympathy for being fired while he was on holiday, a victim of the briefings and whispers that Mr Duncan Smith is supposed to abhor.

It is no coincidence that since his move to shadow Deputy Prime Minister, he is now recognised by the public everywhere he goes. In the street, in restaurants, on the train, Mr Davis has a higher profile than his leader.

Similarly, nobody other than a few political anoraks had even heard of Mr MacGregor until his forced departure to head Steve Norris's campaign for London mayor.

Mr Duncan Smith did inform Theresa May, the party chairman, of his decision, but only hours before Mr MacGregor was fired and with little chance to protest. "She was told, she wasn't consulted. There is a big difference," said one insider.

Allies of the leader then briefed journalists that Mrs May was the next moderniser in the firing line. This echoed what her critics have claimed for a long time, that the chairman is kept out of the loop on key decisions.

Lord Bell, the man who gave Margaret Thatcher her makeover, has told colleagues recently that both Mr MacGregor and Mrs May should go because they obscured the party's right-wing message on policy.

Some senior Tories suspect that such views may be shared by Paul Baverstock, who worked for Lord Bell's PR firm Bell Pottinger before being appointed director of strategic communications in December. That was a personal appointment by Mr Duncan Smith and some claim Mr MacGregor's days were numbered as soon as Mr Baverstock took on his duties.

But when Tory backbenchers return to their huddles in the bars and corridors of Westminster, the plotting will inevitably resume as the events of the past week are ruminated on at length.

The two dozen or so MPs considering a leadership challenge after the local elections in May will be opining to their colleagues: "We told you so." The ides of March have not yet come a little early for Iain Duncan Smith, but Mr Portillo clearly can't wait for May.

The kingmaker twisting the knife

ON THERESA MAY: "Her position appears to be impossible. She has been briefed against. Changes have been made to the party that she should have been consulted about; she wasn't consulted about them. It looks very bad."

ON WHETHER IT WAS NOW 'TOO LATE' FOR MR DUNCAN SMITH TO SURVIVE: "I have no comment on that. He was going through a very good period."

ON CHANGES AT CENTRAL OFFICE: "The advice that I would give to anybody is that you don't look tall if you surround yourself by short grasses. You look tallest when you are surrounded by the tallest grasses. You should actually bring around you the greatest array of talent that you possibly can, and if you are sure of yourself you should be very prepared to surround yourself with people who disagree with you, because all they can do is sharpen your wits, and if you are right all they can do is emphasise your belief in your own opinions.

To surround yourself with lesser people and with people who agree with you is not a sign of strength."

ON BECOMING LEADER: "I have ruled myself out completely and I continue to do that and I do that unequivocally."

ON STRATEGY: "I am not obsessed with landing the Conservative Party with one set of ideas or another set of ideas. What I am motivated by is the wish for the Conservative Party to be successful altogether.

And to be successful, I think it needs to be quite broad. That is really a matter of arithmetic. If you score 30 per cent at a general election you lose, if you score 44 per cent at a general election you win. Finding that margin of 14 per cent is what it is all about. Clearly when the electorate tell you twice through heavy defeats that you have got things wrong, there is no point persisting with what you have been in the past, you have got to make some changes.

I believe these to be merely statements of the obvious. What I see is a narrowing of the party and that, I think, is worrying and I think sad."