SNP, Labour and Tory Scottish election promises not financially credible, says think tank

An independent Scotland would ‘start life with large deficit,’ IFS experts also find

The manifesto spending promises of the three largest Scottish political parties all lack credibility, a highly-respected think tank has said in a damning assessment.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) accused the SNP, Scottish Labour and the Scottish Tories of failing to level with voters on the scale of the economic challenge ahead.

The IFS experts said the Scottish government’s budget is likely to be tight from next year, even before the parties’ new spending plans are accounted for.

Paul Johnson, the IFS director, said the manifestos from the three biggest parties at Holyrood made “strikingly big promises ... without any serious attempt to provide costings or to say how they would be paid for”.

David Phillips, associate director at the IFS, said the SNP and Scottish Labour “envisage what they might think of as a Scandinavian-style future – with a smorgasbord of new entitlements for Scottish residents”.

Although the Scottish Tory offer on benefits was “less expansive”, all three main parties manifestos were found to feature “a disconnect from the fiscal reality the next Scottish government is likely to face”.

Mr Phillips said the Scottish government’s overall budget was projected to increase by about £4.9bn over the next four years. Increased costs for the NHS and social care are predicted to absorb 75 per cent of this, making big spending promises elsewhere more difficult.

“Rising demand for, and costs of, health and social care could easily absorb three-quarters of the projected cash increase in the Scottish government’s budget over the next few years – substantially more than the SNP and Conservatives have budgeted for.”

Delivering pledges outside the health care commitments would likely mean tax rises or cuts elsewhere, the IFS economist said. Mr Phillips added: “Scotland’s politicians have really failed to level with voters on the challenges that lie ahead.”

Discussing the fiscal situation for an independent Scotland,Mr Phillips said: “It’s clear that an independent Scotland would start life with a large deficit. It would need to get that down and that would mean difficult choices.”

The IFS expert also said that since the big fall in oil prices in the mid-2010s, Scotland’s underlying fiscal position “has been relatively weaker than the UK as a whole”.

He added: “That doesn’t mean Scotland can’t afford to be independent, Scotland is a relatively rich country. But it would need to make sure it cut its cloth to fit the size of its own purse, rather than having fiscal transfers from the rest of the UK.”

On Sunday, SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon accepted there would be “issues” over a new economic border between England and an independent Scotland, but insisted businesses need not “suffer” because of it.

Ms Sturgeon told the BBC: “I’m not denying that because of the absurdity of Brexit and the Tory Brexit obsession, then all sorts of issues are raised for Scotland completely against our democratic will.”

The first minister added: “What I’m saying is we will work as a country to make sure that for our businesses there is no difficulties in terms of their day-to-day experience in trading.”