Soldier deserts the ranks and guns for his party leader

As a former captain in the Royal Hussars, Crispin Blunt was perhaps perfectly qualified to issue the long-awaited rallying cry to depose Iain Duncan Smith last night.

But the main question was whether enough of his fellow troops, 24 backbenchers in total, would follow him over the top into battle. Under new rules introduced by William Hague, a leadership contest cannot happen until 15 per cent of the parliamentary Conservative Party calls for a motion of no confidence in the leader.

In theory, it is only once the leader has failed to win a majority in that confidence vote that he has to step down and allow challengers to come forward for a new ballot of MPs and then members.

In practice, the fact that 25 Tory MPs had given their names, in confidence, to Sir Michael Spicer, the chairman of the backbench 1922 committee, would be enough to finish Mr Duncan Smith.

With a majority of the parliamentary party having backed either Kenneth Clarke or Michael Portillo in the last leadership contest in 2001, he knows that MPs are not as supportive as the party members who gave him victory.

Several MPs said last night that although there was no hint of Mr Blunt's move being part of an orchestrated campaign, its very act could embolden those who have, until now, expressed their discontent privately.

The timing of his bombshell could hardly have been more devastating for Mr Duncan Smith, ensuring that the headlines about yesterday's local election results were dominated by whether he would survive as Tory leader rather than the expected Labour losses.

There was speculation that another Tory frontbencher could follow suit today and that, depending on the results in the local elections, more MPs could put their heads above the parapet. Mr Blunt certainly told a select group of friends of his intentions and some of Mr Portillo's supporters were discussing it on Thursday in the Commons corridors.

David Davis, Mr Clarke and Michael Howard are all seen as potential runners in a leadership contest, but others are bound to throw their hats in the ring. Liam Fox, Oliver Letwin and Tim Yeo are other possible candidates. Mr Blunt told The Independent he would not have gone ahead with his devastating attack if he had not been confident there were at least 24 others ready to follow.

He said: "I believe there will be enough to trigger a no-confidence vote and that once that vote occurs, a majority of the party will show their dissatisfaction. I expect that things will move over the next period and we will have a new leader by the end of the summer.

"If I am wrong, then it will be clear that Iain has the support of the parliamentary party and the issue will be closed. If so, he will have my support until the general election."

Mr Blunt voted for Michael Ancram in the first round of the 2001 leadership contest and had not previously disclosed who won his final vote.

Last night, he revealed he had voted for Kenneth Clarke in the final parliamentary ballot. But after seeing the two rivals at a hustings meeting, he changed his mind and voted as in the members' ballot for Mr Duncan Smith. "I was impressed by his answers on Northern Ireland and It seemed that Ken didn't want the job. I now realise I was wrong to have gone for Iain and many others have told me they made the same mistake."

He said his doubts about Mr Duncan Smith began when David Davis was sacked as party chairman in a botched reshuffle last summer. "It became clear to me that we had a serious problem," he said.

But it was the Tory leader's "unite or die" speech last November, that was aimed at quashing speculation of a rebellion, which triggered Mr Blunt to act. He wrote to Sir Michael Spicer formally to call for a motion of no-confidence, the only MP to date to do so.

Mr Blunt made up his mind to go this week and told the Chief Whip, David Maclean, that he would do so unless the leader either stepped aside or agreed to a no-confidence vote.

Yesterday lunchtime in Mr Maclean's Commons office Mr Blunt was told that Mr Duncan Smith had no intention of stepping down. The Reigate MP had delayed his reselection meeting from April and expects that he will be chosen today by his party executive to fight the next election. "They are right behind me. I have talked to many of my association and to Tory supporters on the doorstep and they all agree that Iain has to go," Mr Blunt saidhe said.

Last night, however, his opinion of his former boss was scathing. "If we were a business being operated in the interests of its shareholders or a football club in the interests of its supporters, the managing director or manager would by now have been replaced.

"If we are a political party serious about regaining power, our leader has to be replaced."

A party spokesman began a concerted fightback last night. "Crispin Blunt's resignation is no surprise. He has been at odds with the party leadership for some time, notably over foreign policy," he said.

Senior insiders were much more vitriolic privately and began a deliberate attempt at character assassination. They claimed Mr Blunt was "pro-Palestinian" and alluded to his close relationship with the King of Jordan. "He told Iain that he disagreed with his description of Israel as a 'beacon of democracy in the Middle East'. We knew then he was not onside."

Tthe former Army captain may have triggered the beginning of the end for Iain Duncan Smith. But if the party has put up an impressive showing with 300 or 400 gains, Mr Blunt may be left extremely isolated.

'If we fail to act we have only ourselves to blame for our continued misfortune'

This is an edited version of Crispin Blunt's resignation statement:

"This evening I resigned from Iain Duncan Smith's frontbench team as I can no longer reconcile my public duty to him with my own views of the consequences of his leadership for the success of the Conservative Party.

"Whatever the headline results in today's local elections, the fact is the Conservative Party is making no real progress when we should be taking advantage of the opportunity our opponents and events have offered.

"If the electorate perceived us as a credible alternative government the potential support for us could carry us back to government. However we carry the handicap of a leader whom Conservatives in Parliament and outside feel unable to present to the electorate as a credible alternative Prime Minister.

"When he was elected, Iain emphasised the importance of the image he would present in his first three months. He made little impact, but at the time many thought this was an aberration due to the events of 11th September 2001.

"However Iain's analysis has turned out to be accurate. He has failed to make the necessary impact on the electorate and I don't see any prospect of him doing so.

"The consequences of how we come across are something we have to accept as professional politicians. If we were a business being operated in the interests of its shareholders or a football club in the interests of its supporters, the managing director or manager would by now have been replaced.

"If we are a political party that is serious about regaining power, our leader has to now be replaced.

"I hoped the leader could recognise this analysis himself. The policy work he has initiated reflects credit on him and if he were able to accept the enormous personal sacrifice required by the wider interests of the Party he would show himself to be an individual of rare quality.

"Iain was not prepared to entertain this. My alternative suggestion was that he should initiate a vote of confidence from the Parliamentary Party. If he commanded our confidence, his and therefore our position would be improved.

"My conclusion is that our urgent duty to the wider Conservative interest is to face up to this unpleasant responsibility now.

"... In my judgment any of the likely successors to Iain Duncan Smith can be credibly presented to the electorate as the alternative Prime Minister. One of the reasons I feel able to address this issue publicly is that I am not associated with any of the likely candidates.

"If we are decisive now we can put our Party back on the route to government under a new leader or at the very least give Iain the vote of confidence that will resolve the issue formally for a year, but in practice until the next general election. Either way I believe our position will be improved.

"If we fail to act we will only have ourselves to blame for our Party's and country's continued misfortune."