Poll shock for Starmer: One in three Labour voters thinks PM should go

Findings of a survey commissioned by The Independent reveals Andy Burnham as favourite to take over from the prime minister

Sir Keir Starmer faces a mass revolt among Labour supporters, with more than a third saying the party would have a better chance of winning the next election if he is replaced, according to a new poll for The Independent.

The survey, by JL Partners, a market research company, found that 38 per cent of those who voted Labour in 2024 said it would do better at the ballot box with a new leader, compared to just 13 per cent who said it would do worse.

In an equally damning assessment of his premiership, Labour voters also ranked Sir Keir as the worst Labour prime minister in history, with Tony Blair ranking second-worst.

The results of the poll represent another blow to the beleaguered prime minister, whose future remains the subject of fevered speculation after reports of plots by Labour backbenchers and cabinet rivals to depose him.

The Manchester mayor and former Cabinet Minister Andy Burnham is runaway favourite among Labour supporters to take over from Sir Keir (PA)

The Independent commissioned the poll after it emerged this month that Labour Together, the Labour campaign group credited with helping Sir Keir win power, had secretly run a survey on his popularity among its members.

Results of the research have not been published but they are likely to mirror the results of The Independent poll, which included the same two key questions: should Sir Keir resign; and if so, which of a list of eight named potential alternative candidates should succeed him.

Surprisingly, perhaps, Labour voters have even less faith in his ability to win than the wider general public. The three-to-one margin among Labour voters in favour of him resigning compares to a two-to-one margin among all who voted in last year’s general election.

A total of 39 per cent of Labour voters polled said getting rid of the current leader would make no difference to the party’s election hopes.

Only 13 per cent said the Party would do worse without Starmer in charge (PA)

Asked who should replace Sir Keir, a total of 19 per cent of Labour supporters backed Andy Burnham – despite the fact that the Greater Manchester mayor is not an MP.

He is followed by former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner (10 per cent), deputy party leader Lucy Powell (nine per cent), health secretary Wes Streeting and energy secretary Ed Miliband (both on six per cent); home secretary Shabana Mahmood (four per cent); education secretary Bridget Phillipson (three per cent) and chief secretary to the prime minister Darren Jones (two per cent).

Significantly, the top three alternative leaders picked by Labour supporters are to the left of Starmer from a political perspective.

That might help Labour see off the challenge from the Green Party, which has seen a revival under new leader Zac Polanski, but it could make it harder to stop Labour voters in the so-called red wall constituencies in the party’s traditional Northern heartlands haemorrhaging to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

All of the top three alternative leaders picked by Labour supporters, including Streeting and Rayner, are to the political left of Starmer (PA)

Notably, Labour voters in the North West are most emphatic that the party would benefit by ditching Sir Keir: a total of 14 per cent of such voters in this region said Labour would do “much better” if it replaced him.

Fifteen per cent of Labour voters said they would not support any of the eight suggested candidates; 30 per cent offered no opinion.

Mr Burnham was also the clear first choice to replace Sir Keir among all voters, despite the prime minister having made it clear he is determined to lead Labour into the next election. But even if the PM is forced out, Mr Burnham is currently unable to stand in any Labour leadership contest because he is not an MP.

Burnham would be unable to stand in any Labour leadership contest because he is not an MP (AFP via Getty)

In the Labour Together poll of its own members, participants were asked to name the politicians who stood “the best chance of leading Labour to electoral victory at the next general election” compared with Sir Keir.

They were also asked to rank those they would be likely to back in a leadership race and asked for their views on a range of issues.

JL Partners surveyed 1,562 adults on December 13 and 14