Will the Ulez be a factor in next year’s general election?

The Uxbridge by-election may well have been decided on the question of the Ulez expansion. Sean O’Grady asks what this means for the parties in 2024

Independent candidates in Uxbridge and South Ruislip stage an anti-Ulez protest following Conservative Steve Tuckwell’s victory (PA)

The Conservatives have defied expectations and just managed to hold the Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat, formerly held by Boris Johnson, in a fiercely contested by-election. The swing of 6.7 per cent (that is, 67 voters in every 1,000, on average), from Conservative to Labour was a much smaller movement than was observed in the other seats choosing a new MP on Thursday night – Somerton and Frome, and Selby and Ainsty.

All concerned put the surprise down to the unpopularity of the ultra-low-emission zone (Ulez) charge, which is scheduled to be introduced in the area next month. Whatever its environmental benefits, it has proved to be electorally toxic. There may be lessons, too, for other local authorities or mayors seeking to copy the London Ulez charge, or to introduce similar schemes.

What’s the problem with the Ulez?