Scotland population at 56-year low as deaths surpass births

A falling birth rate and emigration have put Scotland's population at its lowest level for 56 years.

A falling birth rate and emigration have put Scotland's population at its lowest level for 56 years.

Figures from the 2001 census indicate that the population of Scotland will fall faster than previously expected, from about 5 million at the time of the survey to 4.8 million by 2026.

Statistics from the General Register Office for Scotland show that in June last year the population was 5,054,800, a fall of 9,400 on the previous year. In the same year, there were more than 51,000 babies born but more than 57,000 deaths, accounting for almost two-thirds of the population decline.

Migration out of the country accounted for the rest of the decline, with a net loss of 3,745 people in 2001-02.

The birth rate is the lowest since records began in 1855, partly because many Scottish women are having fewer children later. Scotland is the only part of the UK with a declining population. By contrast, the death rate in Scotland is still among the highest in Britain and the European Union, with cancer and heart disease the two most common causes.

John Randall, the Registrar General, said the trend was expected to continue even though there were indications that emigration from Scotland was lower than in the 1960s or even the 1980s. "These population projections are the first to take account of the results from the 2001 census," Mr Randall said. "While a small annual loss of 1,000 persons a year through migration is assumed, the biggest impact on the decline is the falling number of births."

Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh and Glasgow have experienced a fall in population numbers. The number of residents in Aberdeen, Scotland's oil capital, has fallen by 2,640, to 209,270, with people choosing to commute from the surrounding countryside. Dundee and Glasgow show similar patterns, with the respective populations falling by 1,280, to 144,180, and 1,360, to 577,350.

Despite the influx of new business and the jobs created by the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh's population also fell in 2001-02, albeit by 940, to 448,080, as the lure of cheaper properties elsewhere tempted people to move out.

A spokesman for the Confederation of British Industry in Scotland said: "The demographic problems Scotland is facing in the next 20 years are an ageing workforce and a slowing birth rate ... We need to look at what can be done to encourage fresh talent."