Violence prone to seasonal variations

Violence is seasonal, with most assaults in late summer and the lowest number in spring, the first national study of hospital casualty departments reveals today.

Violence is seasonal, with most assaults in late summer and the lowest number in spring, the first national study of hospital casualty departments reveals today.

Injuries and deaths from violence peak from July to September when people spend more time outside, and fall to a low during February to April, the survey published in the Emergency Medicine Journal shows.

Violence may also be up to 10 times more prevalent than official crime statistics show, the three-year study of 33 accident and emergency units suggests. More than 95 per cent of people who are victims of street fights or assaults in the home are thought to be treated in A&E departments, so hospital data is likely to give a much more accurate picture of trends in violence.

Out of nearly 121,500 assaults covered by the study, 74 per cent of injuries were sustained by men, with almost half of those aged 18 to 30. Men over 50 were at lowest risk.

A significant increase in injuries to women was also identified, particularly among those aged 31 to 50. The authors suggest that violent attacks against women in the street, bars or other public places was the cause because the British Crime Survey showed a 16 per cent drop in domestic violence during the survey period.

Dr Vas Sivarajasingham and Professor Jonathan Shepherd of the Department of Oral Surgery, Medicine and Pathology at the University of Wales, Cardiff, conclude that "the finding that assault injury is a seasonal disorder seems particularly important."

The reason, they say, is less easy to pinpoint. "It has been suggested ... that during the summer months, when larger numbers of people are out of doors, there is a greater likelihood of violence."