Bush forced to play down talk of war

President George Bush moved yesterday to damp down expectations of an early American assault on Iraq, saying he had set no deadline. But he stressed that he considered Saddam Hussein "an enemy until proven otherwise".

Mr Bush made his comments as pressure mounted on the United States not to take military action.

Asked by reporters at a golf club near his Texas ranch whether Americans were ready for casualties in Iraq, he responded: "That presumes some kind of imminent war plan. I have no timetable."

The atmosphere in Washington was noticeably changed this weekend, compared to a few days ago, when an American assault on Iraq seemed inevitable if not imminent. Doubts are now being voiced in Washington, including from within the Republican party.

The new flurry of debate came as the US symbolically joined hands yesterday with a coalition of Iraqi opposition leaders dedicated to the overthrow of President Saddam. Delegates from six opposition groups based both in London and Iran leave Washington today after two days of talks with American officials, including Vice President Dick Cheney. They take away an agreement to hold a conference on the future of Iraq this autumn in Europe.

The carefully choreographed contacts with the Iraqi exiles were meant to show a new seriousness by the US to plot a future for Iraq after the removal of President Saddam. No real specifics were discussed, however, for example on exactly what role the groups could expect in a post-Saddam government. The exiles spoke by video link yesterday to Mr Cheney, who is in Wyoming.

"We have presented our vision for overthrowing the dictatorial regime in Iraq and the establishment of a democratic and pluralistic government," said Hamid al-Bayati, a representative of the Iran-based Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution. "We sense more seriousness and commitment from the US government to overthrow the Saddam regime."

But President Bush appeared to be striking a new tone of caution in the wake of remarks from Dick Armey, the Republican House Majority leader, suggesting that there was so far no real justification for military action against President Saddam. "As long as he behaves himself within his own borders, we should not be addressing any attack or resources against him," he said late last week.

The President hinted that he had not ruled out alternatives to the military option. "Most people understand he [Saddam] is a danger, but I have a lot of tools at my disposal," he repeated yesterday. "I have also said I am a deliberate person."

Mr Bush must navigate a tangle of conflicting considerations in pondering a military response to Iraq, many of them related to domestic politics. To back off would alienate his conservative base. But he faces opposition to an attack from Arab governments and his allies.

Political analysts worry, that as he approaches the mid-point in his presidency, Mr Bush may see attacking Iraq as a way to reignite the popularity he won with his declaration of war on terrorism after the al-Qa'ida assaults of 11 September.

"There is no evidence to suggest that Iraq is becoming significantly more dangerous, and no reason to think that we cannot continue to deter Iraqi aggression for many years," said Stephen Walt, academic dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. "The timing is being driven primarily by domestic politics."

"Iraq is the next step in extending his wartime presidency," said Constantine Spiliotes, a political scientist at Dartmouth College. "Wartime presidencies usually work well for incumbents unless the war itself turns into a disaster."

No date has been set for the Iraqi opposition conference, but US officials said that it could take place in September, in Europe. "We made clear that we're absolutely ready to support them as they proceed," an administration official said.