‘Variants arise when infections run wild’: Expert blames countries’ poor Covid response for new mutations

“Letting [the] virus run wild, like US, Brazil did, endangers everyone,” Dr Ashish Jha, the dean of Brown University School of Public Health, says

Highly transmissible variants from the United Kingdom, South Africa, and Brazil have caused concern among health experts due to the potential impact they could have on coronavirus cases worldwide and the long-awaited vaccine.

Dr Ashish Jha, the dean of Brown University School of Public Health, explained in a Twitter thread why the world was seeing these variants from countries that poorly controlled the spread of the novel virus from the beginning, and how it could impact the public moving forward.

“Heard of SARS-CoV2 variant from Japan? No? How about one from South Korea? No? Surely variants from New Zealand and Vietnam? Of course not, because these places haven't given rise to scary variants,” Dr Jha said at the start of his thread.

The above countries are known for how quickly and effectively they were able to shut down the spread of the novel virus through lockdown measures, mask wearing, and social distancing.

In comparison, the United States alongside the UK, South Africa, and Brazil, were some of the countries that have struggled to control the spread and deadly impact of the novel virus.

“Variants arise when infections run wild,” Dr Jha said. “Remember, every infection creates opportunities for ‘errors’ or mutations.”

Scientists were not surprised that Covid-19 has mutated since it was originally detected in Wuhan, China. This was standard for any virus, and Dr Jha said most variants were “meaningless” in terms of transmissibility and impact on treatments like vaccines.

“But every once in a while, a set of mutations will lead the virus to become more contagious, more lethal, or improve its ability to escape our vaccines,” he said.

Research was underway about the impact of variants from the UK, Brazil, and South Africa, but scientists have said they’re likely more transmissible compared to past mutations. Higher transmissibility means a rise in case numbers and hospitalisations.

Also, these variants could impact vaccine efficacy. Moderna said its vaccine was still effective against the UK variant, but it warned the immune protection could be lower against the South African variant. The company was currently working on a booster for its vaccine to address the new variants.

Another variant that could cause problems was potentially surging through Los Angeles, California.

Dr Jha noted that countries like the US, UK, and Brazil already had massive outbreaks before these new variants, and past reactions to the virus has caused the more transmissible mutations.

“Letting [the] virus run wild, like US, Brazil did, endangers everyone,” he said.

If “some nations are largely vaccinated” while “outbreaks are surging elsewhere”, this would likely cause the current vaccines to become ineffective on new mutations. Scientists would then be forced to update the vaccines and everyone would have to receive the new jab.

“It’s the nightmare scenario of a never-ending pandemic,” Dr Jha said.

According to the expert, there was only one solution for the world to put the “nightmare pandemic behind us” and make sure that outbreaks were under control around the world.

“Put in place virus-control policies, get people to wear high quality masks, have more testing, and vaccinate the world now as quickly as possible,” he said.