Maduro’s capture throws Cuba’s oil-dependent future into turmoil

The incident has left Cuban residents questioning what Maduro’s capture could mean for their future

Cuban officials lowered flags before dawn on Monday to mourn 32 security officers, who they claim died in a U.S. weekend strike in Venezuela, the island nation’s closest ally. The incident has left residents questioning what President Nicolás Maduro’s capture could mean for their future.

The two nations share profound ties; Cuban soldiers and security agents frequently served as the Venezuelan president’s bodyguards, and Venezuela’s oil has sustained the economically struggling island for years. While Cuban authorities announced the 32 deaths in a "surprise attack" over the weekend, no further details have been provided.

The Trump administration has warned that toppling Maduro would advance a decades-long goal: dealing a blow to the Cuban government. Severing Cuba from Venezuela could have disastrous consequences for its leaders, who on Saturday called for the international community to stand up to "state terrorism."

Trump said Maduro’s ouster would further batter the ailing Cuban economy.

Many observers say Cuba, an island of about 10 million people, exerted a remarkable degree of influence over Venezuela, an oil-rich nation with three times as many people. (AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa)

“It’s going down,” Trump said of Cuba. “It’s going down for the count.”

Many observers say Cuba, an island of about 10 million people, exerted a remarkable degree of influence over Venezuela, an oil-rich nation with three times as many people. At the same time, Cubans have long been tormented by constant blackouts and shortages of basic foods. And after the attack, they woke to the once-unimaginable possibility of an even grimmer future.

“I can’t talk. I have no words,” 75-year-old Berta Luz Sierra Molina said as she sobbed and placed a hand over her face.

Even though 63-year-old Regina Méndez is too old to join the Cuban military, she said that “we have to stand strong.”

“Give me a rifle, and I’ll go fight,” Méndez said.

Maduro’s government was shipping an average of 35,000 barrels of oil daily over the last three months, about a quarter of total demand, said Jorge Piñón, a Cuban energy expert at the University of Texas at Austin Energy Institute.

“The question to which we don’t have an answer, which is critical: Is the U.S. going to allow Venezuela to continue supplying Cuba with oil?” he said.

Piñón noted that Mexico once supplied Cuba with 22,000 barrels of oil a day before it dropped to 7,000 barrels after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Mexico City in early September.

“I don’t see Mexico jumping in right now,” Piñón said. “The U.S. government would go bonkers.”

Ricardo Torres, a Cuban economist at American University in Washington, said that “blackouts have been significant, and that is with Venezuela still sending some oil.”

“Imagine a future now in the short term losing that,” he said. “It’s a catastrophe.”

Piñón noted that Cuba doesn’t have the money to buy oil on the international market.

“The only ally that they have left out there with oil is Russia,” he said, noting that it sends Cuba about 2 million barrels a year.

“Russia has the capability to fill the gap. Do they have the political commitment, or the political desire to do so? I don’t know,” he said.

Torres also questioned whether Russia would extend a hand.

“Meddling with Cuba could jeopardize your negotiation with the U.S. around Ukraine. Why would you do it? Ukraine is far more important,” he said.

Torres said Cuba should open its doors to the private sector and market and reduce its public sector, moves that could help prompt China to step in and help Cuba.

“Do they have an alternative? I don’t think they do,” he said.