Donald Trump's poll numbers hit by the least surprising group: women

'If Trump loses the election, it will be because women voted against him,' says polling expert

Harriet Agerholm
Wednesday 12 October 2016 17:18 BST
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If just women voted, Hillary Clinton would claim 458 electoral votes and Donald Trump would get 80
If just women voted, Hillary Clinton would claim 458 electoral votes and Donald Trump would get 80 (Getty)

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Louise Thomas

Louise Thomas

Editor

Donald Trump’s degrading comments about women are catching up with him, according to a series of national polls that show a distinct and significant gender gap in voting intention.

Although there is not yet enough data to gauge the effect of the second presidential debate, or the full impact of the release of a video of Mr Trump's comments about groping women, Hillary Clinton is consistently in the lead with female voters.

Among the whole population, a series of national polls released on Tuesday showed MS Clinton leading by a margin of between five and 11 percentage points.

Her average lead holds at around 6 points, putting her in a strong position of getting into the White House.

But the gap is even larger among women. In the surveys that record gender, Ms Clinton is ahead of Mr Trump by 15 points among female voters, according to poll aggregation site, FiveThirtyEight.

One poll in particular has demonstrated a significant gender split. A survey conducted on for of The Atlantic by the Public Religion Research institute showed Ms Clinton was out in front of Mr Trump by 33 percentage points among women, but trailing by 11 percentage points among men.

The poll was carried out between Wednesday and Sunday, meaning some respondents were interviewed before the release of the damning video.

Most notably, this survey demonstrates a collapse in support from white women without college degrees. Until recently they formed the largest group of Mr Trump's supporters. Yet, according to the poll, they are now evenly split between the property tycoon and Ms Clinton.

“At a time when Trump needs to be expanding his support, this new survey shows him faltering with independent voters and slipping further with women voters,” Robert P Jones, CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute told The Atlantic.

“While white evangelical voters are mostly standing by their man, enthusiasm among his base supporters alone is certain to leave him short on Election Day.”

Across all the polls, if only women voted, Ms Clinton would claim 13 states on top of the ones she is already leading in. She would win 458 electoral votes and Mr Trump would be left with 80.

This does work the other way. If only men voted, Mr Trump would win 350 electoral votes, with only 188 for Clinton.

Nevertheless, Ms Clinton's large lead among women could prove decisive.

FiveThirtyEight editor and polling expert Nate Silver said on his website: "It seems fair to say that, if Trump loses the election, it will be because women voted against him."

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