Prediction model that has correctly picked every US president since 1980 says Hillary Clinton will easily win

Clinton's margin over Trump would match Obama's victory over Romney in 2012

Samuel Osborne
Wednesday 02 November 2016 12:14
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Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton addresses supporters at a campaign event at Sanford, Florida on 1 November 2016
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton addresses supporters at a campaign event at Sanford, Florida on 1 November 2016

Hillary Clinton will win the White House in next week's election, a model which has accurately forecasted the last nine US presidential contests predicts.

Ms Clinton is forecast to pick up 332 Electoral College votes against Republican Donald Trump's 206, according to the Moody's Analytics model.

Such a margin would match Barack Obama's victory over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in 2012.

The Moody's Anaytics model is based on a combination of state-level economic conditions and political history. It has correctly called the outcome of each presidential election since Republican Ronald Reagan unseated Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1980.

Low gas prices and President Barack Obama's high approval ratings are key factors pointing to Ms Clinton becoming the 45th president of the United States.

Economic factors measured include the two per cent rise in real personal income per household as well as the rise in home prices, meaning people are currently better off than they were a few years ago.

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The Reuters-Ipsos States of the Nation project also predicts a Clinton win, with a 95 per cent probability of her winning at least 278 electoral votes. A candidate needs to win at least 270 electoral votes to be elected president.

However, Moody's warns its model does not take into account any individual characteristics of specific candidates.

"Given the unusual nature of the 2016 election cycle to date, it is very possible that voters will react to changing economic and political conditions differently than they have in past election cycles, placing some risk in the model outcome, particularly state-by-state projections," Moody's analytics economist Dan White wrote in the report.

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