The Trump Shadow: Could Donald Jr run in 2028 and keep Trump ‘in power’?
While JD Vance remains the front-runner for the Republicans in the next presidential race, recent polling results for the president’s eldest son have led some to start thinking the unthinkable. Alex Hannaford reports
The coronation was supposed to be orderly. From the moment Donald Trump tapped JD Vance as his running mate, the political math for 2028 seemed written in stone. Vance was the political chameleon who, despite once calling his now-boss an “idiot” and “reprehensible”, had quickly fallen in line to become his most loyal lieutenant.
As payment for that loyalty – in reaction to America’s military strike against Venezuela, Vance posted on X yesterday: “Maduro is the newest person to find out that President Trump means what he says. Kudos to our brave special operators who pulled off a truly impressive operation’ – Trump had all but rubber-stamped the succession plans.
The once-sceptic turned acolyte was the heir apparent, and in August, Trump went further than he had ever gone in suggesting his deputy was the “most likely” to succeed him. “In all fairness,” he said, “he’s the vice president.” That was sorted then. Vance was the shoo-in to inherit the Make America Great Again movement and march to the GOP nomination with the full, unambiguous blessing of the man who had remade the party in his name.
But in the brutal, unforgiving world of presidential politics, an opinion poll released at the end of last year showed that Vance’s lead to become the Republican nominee in 2028 was starting to shrink. The comfortable 20-point cushion he had held over his nearest rival in August had evaporated, and Trump World was buzzing about who was narrowing the gap: the president’s son, Donald Trump Jr.
Back in August, a McLaughlin & Associates survey had Vance sitting pretty at 36 per cent, with Donald Trump Jr a distant second at 16 per cent. By October, that gap had narrowed, with Vance at 38 per cent and Trump Jr at 20 per cent (Rubio was in third place at 7 per cent). Then came the November poll, which probably sent shockwaves through Vance’s inner circle: the vice president’s support had slipped to 34 per cent, while Trump Jr had surged.
So what was the reason for Don Jr’s poll numbers? And does this mean we have a potential Trump dynasty to complete the Trump programme on our hands?
Don Jr, the eldest of the two sons Trump had with Ivana, certainly channels his father’s combative style. He and his brother Eric, who is seven years younger, spent summers and weekends at Trump Organization properties or construction sites, learning about real estate, management, and branding first hand. Today, they both hold the title of executive vice president of the Trump Organization and, while neither holds an official role within the administration, Don Jr relishes the political brawl and is seen as a bridge between Trump’s Maga base.
So while last year Trump Sr’s popularity plummeted to the second-lowest among postwar presidents in their first term (the only person lower was Trump himself in his first term), Trump Jr’s ascendant poll numbers could have benefited from his libertarian leanings.
Libertarianism sits awkwardly inside a party which, under Trump, has embraced expansive government power so long as it is wielded by the right people. Where Republicans have increasingly embraced tariffs, industrial policy, and punitive state action, libertarians remain suspicious of almost all government intervention, embracing a worldview focused on shrinking the state. There’s something else libertarians are known for: their love of the second amendment: the right of the people to keep and bear arms.
Last summer, Trump Jr rang the opening bell of the New York Stock Exchange for GrabAGun, a Texas-based online firearms retailer. On Instagram, he assembled and shot a rifle he called “one of the coolest toys I’ve gotten in a long time”. Business Insider also reported he might be eyeing a role with the NRA.
“I’m a Second Amendment person, and I don’t know anything about Vance’s position on it,” says Liz Mair, veteran Republican strategist. “For a real Second Amendment voter, the only people I would truly be comfortable supporting right now would be Donald Trump Jr or Ron DeSantis. And I’d probably be more comfortable with Donald Trump Jr. It depends on each state, but for diehard gun voters, it’s a significant issue, and it was one reason Trump Sr had challenges in 2016.”
Trump Jr has played his hand with characteristic bravado, dismissing speculation in one media organisation that he intends to run. “I’m actually glad you’re printing this bulls**t,” he wrote on X, “because at least now the rest of the press corps will see how s****y your ‘sources’ are and how easily you’re played by them. Congrats, moron.”
Yet, as is often the case in this family, denials are never absolute. In May 2025, when asked at a panel in Qatar if he would "pick up the reins" after Trump leaves office, he replied: “I don’t know. Maybe one day, you know, that calling is there.” Junior wields that ambiguity like a political weapon – a constant reminder that another Trump is waiting in the wings.
That ambiguity has inevitably added fuel to the fire of those who believe Trump himself might try to cling to power beyond a second term. The constitution is unambiguous on that front: The 22nd amendment bars any president from being elected more than twice, but Trump Sr has never shown much deference to political norms, and allies and detractors alike have floated increasingly troublesome scenarios, from legal challenges to outright defiance.
Knowing Trump’s long-standing fixation on legacy, could the inclusion of his son in the mix of potential 2028 contenders mean he is contemplating a “Putin-Medvedev” move? One where Trump Jr runs at the top of the ticket with his father as vice-presidential nominee, only to step aside once in office?
On that, the 12th amendment is also unequivocal: "No person constitutionally ineligible to the office of president shall be eligible to that of vice president."
In other words, if Trump Sr can’t run as president in 2028, he can’t run as VP either. The idea, therefore, may persist more as provocation. After all, with images of the January 6 insurrection still very much alive in people’s memories, Donald Trump has never fully conceded the limits of his power. He still frequently floats norm-breaking ideas, refusing to rule things out and using joking-but-not-joking language about “more than two terms”.
But while this ambiguity fuels relentless speculation, the only realistic scenario would be for Trump senior to hold political influence as opposed to real power. So, in theory, Trump Jr could run, and Trump Sr could act as a kingmaker, adviser, or symbolic figure to ensure the Trump movement could continue. But even this says more about the gravitational pull the elder Trump still exerts over a party struggling to imagine a future without him.
However, Julia Azari, a political science professor at Marquette University and an expert in presidential politics, says that Donald Jr is still very much the wild card. “It looks like Vance is still dominating the field. Both have a lot of name recognition, so it is possible that Vance is seen as someone who would represent a lot of continuity with the administration.”
Azari notes that Vance has also proven he can pivot effectively within the GOP, and that ambiguity can be key to winning a primary. “My money would be on Vance,” Azari says, “because I think Don Jr will always be defined by being his father’s son, and it would be very hard to move past that.
“I wrote a blog post in 2024 that said if the GOP were truly Trumpified, they would have nominated Vivek Ramaswamy [who withdrew his 2024 presidential bid to back Trump]. I think anyone who’s mostly going to derive their political success from Trump is going to run into that problem.”
Meanwhile, the rest of the Republican field remains blurry. Ron DeSantis, once seen as a formidable contender, is stuck in single digits. Figures like Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Nikki Haley are consistently polling in the low single numbers. Vance however, alongside Robert Kennedy Jr, still enjoys net favourability. At a Turning Point USA event in December 2025, a straw poll of conservative activists showed 84 per cent support for Vance as the preferred Republican 2028 nominee – far ahead of others in that informal sample.
But what is certain is that Donald Trump does not just rely on family – he puts them at the centre of presidential power. While past presidents such as the Bushes and the Kennedys are political dynasties, no modern US president has given immediate family members comparable authority inside the White House. Trump’s daughter Ivanka and son-in-law Jared Kushner were both senior advisors to the president during his first presidential term. While Kushner doesn’t hold any official role currently, he was widely praised by Trump for laying the foundations with Steve Witkoff for the Middle East ceasefire between Gaza and Israel.
Lara Trump (married to son Eric) has played a significant role in his past election campaigns, as has Kimberly Guilfoyle (Trump Jr’s former partner) who continues to be a prominent Maga spokesperson. Charles Kushner, Jared Kushner’s father, was made ambassador to France despite having no previous diplomatic experience.
In spite of Trump Jr having no official role, his father continues to rely on him as a public surrogate, spokesperson, and ideological heir in politics. However, while there is a bubbling speculation that Don Jr is being groomed for the big job, Liz Mair agrees that he would still have a hard time winning a general election.
“The major issue is we don’t know what’s going to happen with the rest of the Trump term. But given where things seem to be going right now and given what happened in the first Trump term, [Republicans] like the idea of Donald Trump initially, and then when they are faced with the reality of governance, it turns out a hell of a lot of them really hate it.”
In December, Trump’s popularity recovered slightly and while the military operation in Venezuela has drawn widespread condemnation around the world, members of Trump’s administration have robustly defended the action and denied questions of illegality. Early indications are that hard-line MAGA supporters and pro-intervention conservatives have praised the action as a show of strength, but some “America First” purists may need to be persuaded that this isn’t another foreign distraction from the cost of living crisis at home. For them, Trumpism was meant to end foreign wars, not start new ones.
With 2028 still two years away, nobody can truly predict whether running on an anti-Trump platform will be a guarantee for success, or political suicide. The power and cult of personality should also not be underestimated. And when it comes to that, there really is only one Trump to contend with.
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