‘It’s potentially pushing people away’: Trump's rallies are failing to attract new voters, experts say

‘The president’s rally is absolutely the best weapon the campaign,’ Trump campaign spokesperson insists

President Donald Trump’s campaign rallies are not providing any “additional benefit” in the run up to the election in terms of attracting new voters, experts have warned.

Large rallies were a hallmark of the president’s campaign in 2016, showing thousands of people in packed crowds vocally showing their support for the then presidential candidate.

However, a report by Bloomberg has said that experts and Democrats have speculated whether this year, the events are only reaching those in his core fan base, and expressed skepticism that the events are having a tangible impact on votes.

“The rapid-fire Trump rallies, while clearly well-received by the base, have done nothing to tip the scale in President Trump’s direction,” Tim Malloy, a pollster from Quinnipiac University, told the outlet.

Alan Abramowitz, an Emory University professor who has studied the impact of Mr Trump’s rallies in previous elections has said they didn’t influence voting in the states where they were held and that he expects the same result in this election.

“It doesn’t seem like you’re getting any additional benefit,” he said.

This year, amidst the obstructions caused by the pandemic, Mr Trump has relied on packed rallies for both media attention and a surrogate for more in-person events.

“I am sure his base is eating it up, but these events don’t change minds,” said Alison Jones, chair of the Pima County Democratic Party in Arizona, where Mr Trump held a rally last week.

Tim Murtaugh, communications director for the Trump campaign told Bloomberg that “the rally has always been, and is, an important part of the campaign.”

Republicans have said the rallies also benefit them as they use them to gather voter data from attendees.

“The media and Democrats can scoff at the rally if they want to and think that the president is running a strictly base election,” Mr Murtaugh said.

“We know through data that that is absolutely untrue. The president is expanding his support. The president’s rally is absolutely the best weapon the campaign has because our best asset is the candidate, President Trump.

Holding rallies in defiance of coronavirus health recommendations has also reportedly fueled some voters’ disapproval of his handling of the pandemic, and cemented Mr Biden’s argument that the president is not taking the crisis seriously.

Nancy Zdunkewicz, a Democratic pollster with Change Research told Bloomberg that the rallies may in fact be “pushing people away that might otherwise be with him”.

“He needs to win over some folks. And what he’s doing is not only preventing him from winning over folks, it’s potentially pushing people away that might otherwise be with him -- especially with the Covid stuff,” she said.  

“He’s highlighting this issue which is the place where he is doing the worst.”

Mr Trump’s Democratic rival Joe Biden has kept a limited travel schedule in light of the coronavirus pandemic, having only held two events since last Thursday’s debate.

“We’re not putting out super spreaders,” Mr Biden said on Monday in Pennsylvania. “Everybody’s wearing a mask and trying as best as we can to be socially distanced,” he said.

Mr Biden is leading Mr Trump by about eight percentage points in national polls, according to RealClearPolitics.