JP Morgan stock expert tells investors to prepare for a Trump win and claims violent protests will shift polls

Marko Kolanovic claims ‘cancel culture’ may be stopping US president’s supporters from telling pollsters they are voting for him

James Crump
Wednesday 02 September 2020 17:39
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A stock market expert at JP Morgan has told investors to prepare for president Donald Trump winning reelection in November, as his betting odds narrow against Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

In a note to investors on Monday, Marko Kolanovic, a senior analyst at the bank, wrote that most clients are prepared for the Democratic nominee to win in November, but said that they should start getting ready for Mr Trump’s reelection.

Mr Kolanovic warned that, what he described as “cancel culture,” may be stopping some supporters of Mr Trump telling pollsters that they are voting for him on election day, according to the Daily Mail.

Betting odds that previously gave Mr Biden a strong lead over the president, have narrowed in recent weeks, due to violence at some Black Lives Matter protests across the US, according to Mr Kolanovic.

He said that past research shows that if the overall perception of protests turns violent, then polls could shift between five to ten points in the favour of Republicans, according to Bloomberg.

Mr Kolanovic claimed that the public perception of the protests could shift because of “the broad online availability of violent footage, but also the ability to influence social media to amplify this message.”

Although Mr Biden is still the favourite in nationwide polls, Mr Kolanovic told investors that “certainly a lot can happen in the next — 60 days to change the odds, but we currently believe that momentum in favour of Trump will continue, while most investors are still positioned for a Biden win.”

A new poll released by Reuters on Wednesday, showed Mr Biden ahead of the president by seven points nationally, which is consistent with figures over the last few weeks as both parties held national conventions.

In the poll, only eight per cent listed crime as a top priority for the US, while 78 per cent said that the ongoing coronavirus pandemic was still a concern for the country.

Mr Trump has made “law and order” a main theme of his reelection campaign, in response to the Black Lives Matter protests that have taken place across the country over the last three months.

The president has criticised violence at protests and on the final night of the Republican National Convention, claimed that voters “won’t be safe in Biden’s America.”

Mr Biden has expressed support for the protests, but has condemned any violence, while he has mainly criticised the president for his response to the pandemic that has so far killed more than 180,000 people in the US.

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