Trump trailing Biden in new Texas poll as president loses support among college-educated voters

Former vice president on 45 per cent compared to incumbent's 44 per cent in latest Quinnipiac survey

Can Biden turn the Lone Star state blue in 2020? (Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)

Joe Biden has moved ahead of Donald Trump In the latest Quinnipiac Poll of voting intentions in Texas.

The former vice president is preferred by 45 per cent of respondents, and the incumbent president by 44 per cent. In early June those numbers were 44 per cent to Trump and 43 per cent to Biden.

With 38 Electoral College votes, Texas has been a sure win for the Republican Party for some time. The last Democrat to take the state was Jimmy Carter in 1976.

The Democratic Party has long hoped that shifting demographics will soon make Texas competitive in presidential elections.

In 2020, population trends, and the myriad crises facing the country, appear to have accelerated the process.

“With crises swirling through American society and a country deeply divided, there's no other way to slice it. It's a tossup in Texas," says Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy.

One of the shifts that appears to be putting Texas in play in 2020, is that while Trump leads Biden among college-educated white people 49 to 42 per cent, this is actually a big swing towards the Democrats compared to recent election years.

The Centre for American Progress’ analysis of voter trends had college-educated whites splitting 68 to 30 per cent in choosing between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama in 2012; and 57 to 37 per cent choosing between Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Referencing the Quinnipiac poll results for the group, Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report tweeted: “In 2016, by my estimates, Trump carried them 61-33. This is a massive suburban defection.”

By party affiliation, Democrats back Biden 94 to three per cent; independents back Biden 51 to 32 per cent; and Republicans back Trump 89 to six per cent.

Asked who would do a better job of handling some of the challenges facing the country, Texans still favour Trump over Biden on the economy (56 to 40 per cent); but feel Biden would do a better job responding to the coronavirus (48 to 45), and addressing racial inequality (51 to 39).

On healthcare the two candidates are split even at 47 per cent each, the same result as for how they would handle a generic crisis.

Responses were collated from 880 self-identified registered voters in Texas, surveyed from 16-20 July with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.