Poll suggests third-party bid wouldn’t derail Biden’s shot at re-election

Voters would break for incumbent president if third-party candidate’s bid appeared to endanger Biden’s chances, survey finds

A new survey out from Monmouth University should have the Biden campaign — and the DC media circuit — breathing slightly easier.

The university’s pollsters surveyed the effect that a prominent third-party presidential bid would have on a matchup between Mr Biden and his 2020 rival, Donald Trump, who is looking more likely to be the Republican nominee with every passing day. The findings were objectively good news for the president: Voters still back him over the twice-impeached former president when a prominent third-party candidate is introduced into the equation.

And even better news for Mr Biden: When voters are asked to consider a scenario in which a vote for a third-party candidate would put Mr Biden’s victory in particular danger, a slim majority say they would vote for the former president.

“The expectation that a third-party run could tip the scales toward Biden might produce a tighter contest than when the spoiler effect is seen to help Trump. Again, these are hypotheticals. It’s impossible to predict the impact of a third-party challenge until an actual campaign is underway when the media’s framing of it will play an important role,” said Monmouth polling institute director Patrick Murray.

“[W]hen you drill down further, there doesn’t seem to be enough defectors to make that a viable option,” he added of a third-party bid actually having a shot at winning in 2024.

The poll notably only included the names of potential contenders for a so-called “fusion” ticket consisting of a Democrat and a Republican, West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin and former Utah Gov Jon Huntsman, as specific options for voters to consider as third-party candidates.

Others are actually running, including Green Party candidate Dr Cornel West, and two candidates are running under the Democratic ticket — Marianne Williamson and Robert F Kennedy Jr, though the party is not set to hold any opportunities for them to debate the incumbent president.

Mr Kennedy in particular has not ruled out the possibility of running third-party should his primary bid fail.