Donald Trump has clear lead over rivals in final poll before Iowa caucus

The same poll also gave Hillary Clinton a slight lead over Bernie Sanders 

Hillary Clinton is holding onto a slim lead over Bernie Sanders in Iowa as the nation prepares for Monday’s caucuses, according to a highly respected poll. The poll also gave a clear lead to Republican Donald Trump.

The poll by Bloomberg News and the Des Moines Register put Ms Clinton ahead of Mr Sanders by 45 per cent to 42 per cent. Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley was on three per cent in the survey conducted January 26-29.

Meanwhile, Saturday evening’s poll found Mr Trump leading Senator Ted Cruz 28 per cent to 23 per cent among likely GOP caucus-goers.

Hillary Clinton again faces an unexpectedly tough fight for the Democratic nomination

The poll, conducted by veteran pollster J Ann Selzer, also found Senator Marco Rubio with 15 per cent and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 10 per cent

The poll is considered by pundits to be one of the most accurate, based on its performance in recent years and the woman who runs the poll, Ms Selzer, has an impressive track record.

Ms Selzer and her Des Moines-based firm, Selzer & Company, have polled for the Des Moines Register for decades and she was the only pollster to correctly predict the order of Democratic candidates in 2004.

The Politico website said that her final poll before the 2008 caucuses accurately predicted that a surge of first-time caucus-goers would help push Barack Obama to victory.

She also said former senator Rick Santorum’s surge in the waning days before the 2012 Republican caucuses when few others did. Just last year, she pointed to an Iowa Senate race that gave Republican Joni Ernst a seven point lead, contrary to other polls. Mr Ernst won by nine points.

“I think it has to do with being more of a traditionalist, science-based pollster,” she told the news website, explaining her remarkable accuracy.

“And because it has worked for me, I’ve not been tempted to go and try other methods. And because I have clients who are willing to pay the premium that it takes to do it this way, I’ve not had to cut corners.”

Register for free to continue reading

Registration is a free and easy way to support our truly independent journalism

By registering, you will also enjoy limited access to Premium articles, exclusive newsletters, commenting, and virtual events with our leading journalists

Please enter a valid email
Please enter a valid email
Must be at least 6 characters, include an upper and lower case character and a number
Must be at least 6 characters, include an upper and lower case character and a number
Must be at least 6 characters, include an upper and lower case character and a number
Please enter your first name
Special characters aren’t allowed
Please enter a name between 1 and 40 characters
Please enter your last name
Special characters aren’t allowed
Please enter a name between 1 and 40 characters
You must be over 18 years old to register
You must be over 18 years old to register
Opt-out-policy
You can opt-out at any time by signing in to your account to manage your preferences. Each email has a link to unsubscribe.

By clicking ‘Create my account’ you confirm that your data has been entered correctly and you have read and agree to our Terms of use, Cookie policy and Privacy notice.

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy policy and Terms of service apply.

Already have an account? sign in

By clicking ‘Register’ you confirm that your data has been entered correctly and you have read and agree to our Terms of use, Cookie policy and Privacy notice.

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy policy and Terms of service apply.

Register for free to continue reading

Registration is a free and easy way to support our truly independent journalism

By registering, you will also enjoy limited access to Premium articles, exclusive newsletters, commenting, and virtual events with our leading journalists

Already have an account? sign in

By clicking ‘Register’ you confirm that your data has been entered correctly and you have read and agree to our Terms of use, Cookie policy and Privacy notice.

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy policy and Terms of service apply.

Join our new commenting forum

Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies

Comments

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in