Election polls latest 2016: Final surveys show Hillary Clinton leading ahead of Donald Trump

Ms Clinton has a small but persistent lead a day before election day

Andrew Buncombe
New York
Monday 07 November 2016 16:00
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Trump v Clinton: US Election forecast - November 7

With one day to go until election day, two final polls have given Hillary Clinton a lead of up to 5 per cent over Republican rival Donald Trump.

The candidates have been making their final pleas to the American people on the eve of the big day with last-minute tours of the country, holding rallies in battleground state and urging their supporters to get out and vote.

Ms Clinton was holding rallies in Michigan, Pennsylvania – where she was to campaign with Bruce Springsteen and the Obamas – and North Carolina. Mr Trump meanwhile, was hitting Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.

Mr Trump campaigned in five states - including Minnesota

As they tore across the country, a final tracking poll by the Washington Post/ABC News scored it 47 per cent to 43 per cent in the Democrat's favour. Meanwhile, the final poll by CBS News gave Ms Clinton a lead of four points, scoring it 45 per cent to 41 per cent. Very few people interviewed said they were likely to change their minds.

The poll found that the 70-year-old New York tycoon was leading among white men, whites without a college degree, and elderly citizens. Ms Clinton leads among women, African Americans and younger voters, and she has an edge among whites with a college degree. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics, which collates all polls, says that the lead is more modest – just 1.8 per cent.

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Professor Jeanne Zaino, a political scientist from Iona College, said that she believed Ms Clinton would win, though there remains a narrow chance of Mr Trump coming good. She said the three most important factors have been Mr Trump's unruly temperament, Ms Clinton's better organisation skills and the fact that the economy was doing better than many people acknowledged.

"My guess is that she will take it. There's a 20-30 per cent chance of that Trump could do it, but I think she will take it," she told The Independent.

CBS said that early voting and battleground geography spell different fortunes for Ms Clinton and and Trump’s chances on Tuesday, with the Democrat garnering majority support among those who have cast ballots but Mr Trump faring better among likely voters in key states in the electoral college.

Despite Mr Trump’s hesitance to say he will accept the election’s outcome, nearly eight in 10 likely voters say they are prepared to accept the result regardless of who wins, including about seven in 10 Trump supporters and about nine in 10 Clinton backers.

On Sunday, Mr Trump’s running mate, Mike Pence, said the campaign would accept a clear result but would retain the right to challenge in cases where their were discrepancies.

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