Poll shows Democrat slightly leads in race for George Santos’s former seat

Democrats hope to flip the seat that voted overwhelmingly for Joe Biden in 2020

(Getty Images)

A new poll shows that Democrats have a slight lead in the race to replace disgraced congressman George Santos in New York’s 3rd congressional district.

The Emerson College Polling/Pix11 survey showed that 45 per cent of registered voters preferred former Democratic congressman Tom Suozzi , while 42 per cent of voters preferred Republican Mazie Pilip. Meanwhile, 9 per cent of voters say they are undecided, which is within the poll’s 3.1 per cent margin of error.

The survey showed that 84 per cent of the sample of 975 registered voters identified as “very likely” to vote in the special election. Emerson College Polling and Pix11 conducted the poll between 13 January and 15 January. The Democratic candidate leads with voters considered “very likely” with 51 per cent compared to 37 per cent who support Ms Pilip.

Despite 50 per cent of voters between 18 and 39 disapproving of President Joe Biden’s performance as president, 53 per cent of those voters support Mr Suozzi. He also leads with voters with a college degree 48 to 44 per cent.

Mr Suozzi is running for a seat that includes Long Island and Queens that he chose to leave when he ran in a Democratic primary against Governor Kathy Hochul in 2022. He soundly beat Mr Santos in 2020 when the district voted for Mr Biden by eight points. Ms Pilip serves in the Nassau County legislature.

The House of Representatives overwhelmingly voted to expel Mr Santos last month as he faced multiple legal troubles and a House Ethics Committee report showed he defrauded donors and spent money on personal expenses including Sephora, OnlyFans and Hermes.

The special election will take place on 13 February. Democrats hope to flip the seat to their column and shave off Republicans’ thin 220-seat majority as they hope to win back the House later this year.

The Democratic Party has also massively outspent Republicans in the district. AdImpact showed that Democrats have spent $8.1m compared to $1.4m spent by Republicans.