If Republicans lose their Alabama Senate seat because of Roy Moore, their agenda would likely be doomed

Republicans already have a narrow majority in the Senate

Republican candidate for the US Senate in Alabama, Roy Moore (Getty)

The chances of Roy Moore losing the Senate race in Alabama are still slim, but many in Washington fear defeat for him could reshape the Washington political landscape.

The impact of allegations saying Mr Moore had a sexual encounter with an underage teen – something Mr Moore has denied – is still unclear. But a loss by Mr Moore to a Democrat in next month’s special election would take the Republicans’ Senate majority from 52-48 to 51-49 – a shift that could virtually make it impossible for party members to pass any major legislation in the near future.

The upper chamber’s Republican leadership is already having a hard time placating members of their own party on legislative issues such as tax and healthcare reform. Having a narrower majority, could make this all the more difficult.

And even if there is no reduction of Republican power in the Senate in the coming months, Alabama’s election of Mr Moore could translate to more Democratic wins during competitive congressional races next year.

Having a controversial figure like Mr Moore in office could increase voters’ unhappiness with the situation in Washington, making if more likely for Democrats to recapture the Senate and House of Representatives in 2018.

To win a majority in the House, Democrats must flip 24 Republican-held seats as well as successfully defend 10 incumbent senators running for reelection in states that President Donald Trump won in 2016.

In the Senate, Democrats only need a net gain of three seats in the 100-member Senate to have a majority. But they are also defending 25 seats – 10 of which are in states that Mr Trump won.

Mr Moore, known for making strong anti-gay and anti-Muslim comments, had not been Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s first choice to be the Republican candidate in Alabama’s special senatorial election.

Mr McConnell and other establishment Republicans – as well as Donald Trump – had backed Luther Strange, who had been selected to fill the Senate seat left vacant when Jeff Sessions became Attorney General.

While on the campaign trail to defeat Mr Strange, Mr Moore – supported by ex-White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon – said Mr McConnell was an obstacle to a more conservative agenda.

The controversy enveloping the 70-year-old former judge, twice elected to and twice removed from the Alabama Supreme Court, came after the Washington Post published an extensive report alleging that he had pursued teenage girls when he was in his 30s. The report alleged that he had initiated a sexual encounter with a 14-year-old girl when he was 32. Three other women also alleged that Mr Moore made advances on them when they were teenagers and he was in his 30s, but indicated that he had not attempted to initiate sexual contact with them. Those women ranged in age from 16 to 18.

Mr Moore has denied all the allegations, saying in a statement to the Post that they “are completely false and are a desperate political attack by the National Democrat Party and the Washington Post on this campaign”.

The campaign said in a subsequent statement that if the allegations were true they would have surfaced during his previous campaigns, adding “this garbage is the very definition of fake news”.

In the hours following the release of the report, several Republicans put out statements calling for Mr Moore to “step aside” if the allegations are true.

The White House made similar comments. “Like most Americans the President believes we cannot allow a mere allegation, in this case one from many years ago, to destroy a person’s life,” White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders told reporters. “However, the President also believes that if these allegations are true, Judge Moore will do the right thing and step aside.”

On Friday, Politico reported that the Republican Party’s Senate campaign wing has terminated its fundraising deal with Mr Moore.

Under Alabama state law, the ballot cannot be changed within 76 days of an election, according to the Post. The election is scheduled for 12 December.

However, a candidate can still withdraw, or a state party can request a state judge or the secretary of state to disqualify a candidate from the race, the newspaper added.

Some Republicans have suggested that Mr Strange begin a write-in campaign.

“Well, that’s getting the cart ahead of the horse. But I will have something to say about that. Let me do some more research,” Mr Strange said.

Mr Moore so far has showed no signs of stepping aside in the election, and multiple prominent Alabamians involved in politics have come to his defence – seeming to indicate that the former judge has remained popular in the state despite the allegations against him.

The Republican National Committeeman from the socially conservative state, Paul Reynolds, said he trusts Russian President Vladimir Putin more than Mr Moore’s accusers. Multiple US intelligence agencies have said that the Kremlin meddled in the 2016 election with the aim of helping Mr Trump win.

Perhaps some of the most surprising comments came from Alabama State Auditor Jim Zeigler, who dismissed the Post’s report by saying that there was also an age gap between the biblical Joseph and Mary.

“Mary was a teenager and Joseph was an adult carpenter. They became parents of Jesus,” he told The Washington Examiner. “There’s just nothing immoral or illegal here. Maybe just a little bit unusual.”