Biden would beat Trump again if they both run in 2024, poll suggests

Latest favourability ratings from YouGov/The Economist see Democrat ahead

With Joe Biden saying on Thursday that he expects to run for reelection in 2024, the latest polling from YouGov/The Economist suggests that if he faced a rematch with Donald Trump, he may win once again.

While the former president has hinted on multiple occasions that he would run again for the White House after serving just one term in office, Thursday’s announcement by the current occupant of the Oval Office sees a rematch as slightly more of a possibility.

The poll, which was conducted prior to President Biden’s press conference, covers a number of issues pertinent to US politics as well as tracking the favourability of senior figures in both the Democratic and Republican parties.

Overall the president is more popular than his predecessor and enjoys a stronger favourability in his own party than Mr Trump does among Republicans.

Some 32 per cent of all respondents had a very favourable opinion of Mr Biden and 18 per cent had a somewhat favourable view.

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Within the Democratic Party, 70 per cent had a “very favourable” view of the president, and 21 per cent opted for “somewhat favourable”.

For Mr Trump, 27 per cent of respondents had a very favourable opinion of the former president and 15 per cent said they had a “somewhat favourable” view of him.

When confined to those that identify as Republicans, 61 per cent chose “very favourable” and 23 per cent said “somewhat favourable”.

The poll surveyed 1,500 US adults between 20 to 23 March and the results have a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

On Thursday, when asked about the 2024 election, Mr Biden said: “The answer is yes, my plan is to run for re-election.”

“That’s my expectation,” he added, a point he reiterated later, suggesting that it is not 100 per cent guaranteed.

“I’m a great respecter of fate,” he continued. “I’ve never been able to plan three-and-a-half years head for certain.”

If he was to run again, the president said, he’d ask Kamala Harris to once again join him as vice president.

When asked if he thought he could be running against Mr Trump in 2024, Mr Biden joked he wasn’t sure the GOP would even last that long – a nod to divisions in the party between traditional conservatives and Trump loyalists.

“I have no idea, he said. “I have no idea if there will be a Republican party. Do you?”

Were Mr Trump not to run in 2024, it is believed he may act as a kingmaker, with his endorsement a key prize in the Republican primaries.

If the two men were to run again in 2024, on election day Mr Biden would be about to turn 82, and Mr Trump would be 78.

In the 2020 election, Mr Biden won 306 electoral college votes to Mr Trump’s 232.

Both candidates achieved record numbers in the popular vote, with Mr Biden winning by a margin of 7 million with 81.3 million votes.