Trump leads Biden by 11 points in new Iowa poll

The survey shows former president increasing his lead among Iowans by three points since the 2020 election as inflation and Covid weigh on his successor’s approval ratings

Donald Trump’s polling lead over Joe Biden in Iowa has increased to 11 points as inflation, supply chain chaos and continuing Covid transmission weighs on the current president’s approval rating.

A new poll by the Des Moines Register found that 51 per cent of likely Iowa voters would back Mr Trump in a hypothetical 2024 election contest with Mr Biden, compared to 40 per cent for the incumbent.

That was three points higher than the margin by which Mr Trump won Iowa in 2020, and 1.4 points higher than his lead over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

However, the difference was within the poll’s margin of error of 3.8 percentage points, meaning the real level of support could be that much higher or lower.

It comes as a separate national poll found that Americans’ approval of how Mr Biden is handling the coronavirus pandemic and the economy has dropped sharply since April this year.

J Ann Selzer, president of the Iowa poll’s organiser Selzer & Co, told the Register: "Trump won Iowa convincingly in 2020, and that’s reflected in these data."

She said the poll also "opens the door" to potential Republican challengers to Mr Trump, with 61 per cent of Iowans who identify as Republicans saying they are more aligned with the party than with the former president.

Iowa is the traditional starting point of all US presidential elections because it hosts the first primary for each party, with candidates’ visit to the Iowa State Fair a time-honoured ritual.

That means its results are often taken as a strong indicator of candidates’ viability, although its electorate is much whiter and more rural, and slightly older and more educated, than the US as a whole.

Mr Biden has not enjoyed a net positive rating in Iowa since March, when 47 per cent of residents approved of his performance and 44 per cent disapproved. Today those numbers are 33 per cent to 62 per cent.

The new survey also showed a "striking" gap between intended turnout in 2024, with Republicans 10 points more likely to say they will definitely vote. Mr Trump has not yet said whether he will run in 2024.