Poll shows Trump beating Biden in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Michigan

Biden performs better with likely voters

Eric Garcia
Monday 13 May 2024 17:50
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A new New York Times/Siena College poll showed former president Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in five of the six major swing states that Mr Biden won in the 2020 election.

The survey showed that Mr Trump beats Mr Biden by three points in Pennsylvania; three points in Michigan; seven points in Arizona; 10 points in Georgia; and 12 points in Nevada. Mr Biden only beats Mr Trump by two points in Wisconsin. Mr Biden won all six states in 2020.

The survey was conducted with registered voters. But the poll showed a tighter race among likely voters, with Mr Biden winning Michigan but narrowly losing Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Mr Trump shocked many in 2016 when he won the three historically Democratic states, which led to him assuming the presidency. Mr Biden largely won the Democratic nomination for president based on the idea that he could win these states back from Mr Trump, which he did.

The survey also showed that 21 per cent of voters listed the economy as the biggest issue they faced. Similarly, 58 per cent of voters said they trusted Mr Trump with the economy compared to 36 per cent who trusted Mr Biden.

Biden pollster Geoff Garin dismissed concerns about the polls, saying how they have been inconsistent and needed to be weighed against more than 30 polls showing Mr Biden improving.

“The reality is that many voters are not paying close attention to the election and have not started making up their minds — a dynamic also reflected in today’s poll,” he said in a statement provided by the Biden campaign. “These voters will decide this election and only the Biden campaign is doing the work to win them over."

But Mr Biden continues to face negative numbers across the board. Voter dissatisfaction with Mr Biden’s handling of the war between Israel and Hamas led to 50 per cent of voters saying they trust Mr Trump more compared to 35 per cent who said Mr Biden. In every state, a plurality of voters said they sympathised more with Israelis compared to the Palestinians.

Many voters listed abortion as a major concern, with 37 per cent of voters saying abortion should be always legal and 27 per cent saying it should be mostly legal.

But the poll showed that almost a fifth of voters blame Mr Biden for the death of Roe v Wade, which happened during his presidency but was decided thanks to the nomination of three Supreme Court justices nominated by Mr Trump, which shifted the balance of the court.

Mr Biden also continues to face low approval numbers, clocking in at only a 36 per cent approval rating. In particular, he struggles with young voters, a historically Democratic-leaning demographic, with 65 per cent of 18 to 29-year-olds disapproving of him. Only 53 per cent of Black voters approve of Mr Biden as Mr Trump continues to make overtures to the voting demographic that largely propelled Mr Biden to the Democratic nomination for president in 2020.

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