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As the US surpassed the woeful milestone of 250,000 coronavirus deaths, Donald Trump has boasted that the mortality rate is “85 per cent down” – a claim contested on several fronts.
The pandemic is showing no sign of slowing down in the world’s worst-hit country, with one million new cases identified in a single week and 19 states reporting record numbers of hospitalisations.
But in a series of early-morning tweets sent after a John Hopkins University tally showed more than a quarter of a million fatalities, the outgoing president claimed: “THE COVID DRUGS NOW AVAILABLE TO MAKE PROPLE [sic] BETTER ARE AMAZING, BUT SELDOM TALKED ABOUT BY THE MEDIA! Mortality rate is 85% down!”
Mr Trump previously made the same claim in early September, when he said during a press conference that “under Operation Warp Speed, we’ve pioneered groundbreaking therapies, reducing the fatality rate 85 percent since April”, similarly adding: “You don’t hear that from the press very often.”
In support of this claim, the White House has previously pointed reporters at North Carolina’s WRAL News to data compiled by Jay Bhattacharya of the Stanford University School of Medicine.
This graph reportedly shows that nearly one in three people diagnosed with Covid-19 in March did not survive, and that this proportion had fallen to five per cent by July – signifying a roughly 85 per cent drop as Mr Trump says.
However, this calculation ignores the key fact that in the early stages of the pandemic, most non-severe cases were going unnoticed due to a lack of testing, which progressed from below 30,000 per day in mid-March, to more than 800,000 by mid-July.
As a result, as testing has ramped up and a larger proportion of infections – from severe to asymptomatic – have been identified, the known mortality rate has dropped significantly.
“Since the denominator of case-fatality is the number of cases detected, the availability of testing and testing practices is a huge driver of the case fatality,” Brooke Nichols, an infectious disease modeller at the Boston University School of Public Health told WRAL in September.
World news in picturesShow all 50 1 /50World news in pictures World news in pictures 30 September 2020 Pope Francis prays with priests at the end of a limited public audience at the San Damaso courtyard in The Vatican
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World news in pictures 28 September 2020 A Chinese woman takes a photo of herself in front of a flower display dedicated to frontline health care workers during the COVID-19 pandemic in Beijing, China. China will celebrate national day marking the founding of the People's Republic of China on October 1st
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World news in pictures 25 September 2020 The casket of late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is seen in Statuary Hall in the US Capitol to lie in state in Washington, DC
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World news in pictures 23 September 2020 A whale stranded on a beach in Macquarie Harbour on the rugged west coast of Tasmania, as hundreds of pilot whales have died in a mass stranding in southern Australia despite efforts to save them, with rescuers racing to free a few dozen survivors
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World news in pictures 22 September 2020 State civil employee candidates wearing face masks and shields take a test in Surabaya
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World news in pictures 20 September 2020 A deer looks for food in a burnt area, caused by the Bobcat fire, in Pearblossom, California
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World news in pictures 15 September 2020 Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny posing for a selfie with his family at Berlin's Charite hospital. In an Instagram post he said he could now breathe independently following his suspected poisoning last month
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World news in pictures 13 September 2020 A man stands behind a burning barricade during the fifth straight day of protests against police brutality in Bogota
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World news in pictures 9 September 2020 Pope Francis takes off his face mask as he arrives by car to hold a limited public audience at the San Damaso courtyard in The Vatican
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World news in pictures 6 September 2020 Novak Djokovic and a tournament official tends to a linesperson who was struck with a ball by Djokovic during his match against Pablo Carreno Busta at the US Open
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World news in pictures 3 September 2020 A full moon next to the Virgen del Panecillo statue in Quito, Ecuador
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World news in pictures 2 September 2020 A Palestinian woman reacts as Israeli forces demolish her animal shed near Hebron in the Israeli-occupied West Bank
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World news in pictures 1 September 2020 Students protest against presidential elections results in Minsk
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World news in pictures 31 August 2020 The pack rides during the 3rd stage of the Tour de France between Nice and Sisteron
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World news in pictures 30 August 2020 Law enforcement officers block a street during a rally of opposition supporters protesting against presidential election results in Minsk, Belarus
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World news in pictures 28 August 2020 Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe bows to the national flag at the start of a press conference at the prime minister official residence in Tokyo. Abe announced he will resign over health problems, in a bombshell development that kicks off a leadership contest in the world's third-largest economy
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World news in pictures 23 August 2020 People carry an idol of the Hindu god Ganesh, the deity of prosperity, to immerse it off the coast of the Arabian sea during the Ganesh Chaturthi festival in Mumbai, India
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World news in pictures 22 August 2020 Firefighters watch as flames from the LNU Lightning Complex fires approach a home in Napa County, California
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World news in pictures 21 August 2020 Members of the Israeli security forces arrest a Palestinian demonstrator during a rally to protest against Israel's plan to annex parts of the occupied West Bank
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World news in pictures 18 August 2020 Students use their mobile phones as flashlights at an anti-government rally at Mahidol University in Nakhon Pathom. Thailand has seen near-daily protests in recent weeks by students demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha
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World news in pictures 17 August 2020 Members of the Kayapo tribe block the BR163 highway during a protest outside Novo Progresso in Para state, Brazil. Indigenous protesters blocked a major transamazonian highway to protest against the lack of governmental support during the COVID-19 novel coronavirus pandemic and illegal deforestation in and around their territories
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World news in pictures 16 August 2020 Lightning forks over the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge as a storm passes over Oakland
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World news in pictures 15 August 2020 Belarus opposition supporters gather near the Pushkinskaya metro station where Alexander Taraikovsky, a 34-year-old protester died on August 10, during their protest rally in central Minsk
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World news in pictures 14 August 2020 AlphaTauri's driver Daniil Kvyat takes part in the second practice session at the Circuit de Catalunya in Montmelo near Barcelona ahead of the Spanish F1 Grand Prix
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World news in pictures 13 August 2020 Soldiers of the Brazilian Armed Forces during a disinfection of the Christ The Redeemer statue at the Corcovado mountain prior to the opening of the touristic attraction in Rio
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World news in pictures 12 August 2020 Young elephant bulls tussle playfully on World Elephant Day at the Amboseli National Park in Kenya
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Additionally, while the virus tore through nursing homes at the pandemic’s outset – with a Washington Post analysis finding at least one in four homes had reported at least one case by mid-May.
However, nursing homes have since stepped up protections for their residents, most of whom are deemed vulnerable to Covid-19 because of their advanced age.
And while Mr Trump highlights pharmaceutical gains as the reason for the virus’s reduced mortality rate, medics have also pointed to advancements in non-chemical treatment methods – such as turning patients onto their front to aid the lungs, and some say it is too early to apportion the level of success each individual treatment is having.
Meanwhile, the virus is running rampant across the US as winter approaches, with some states reverting to widespread closures in order to suppress the spread of infection.
New York City has closed its school system, the largest in the country, with more than a million pupils to learn remotely instead.
Governors across the nation are again reluctantly ordering lockdowns in varying levels, with limits on social gatherings and the closures of restaurants, bars and gyms.
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