Trump leads DeSantis by 20 points in poll of Florida Republicans

Former president’s win in Florida could mean doom for a DeSantis campaign

Gov Ron DeSantis just got some of his worst polling news yet.

A survey of likely Republican primary voters in the Sunshine State by Florida Atlantic University shows him firmly trailing former President Donald Trump, with the pair’s other rivals for the GOP nomination far out in the wilderness. Mr Trump leads Mr DeSantis 50-30 in the survey.

The poll affirmed two narratives involving the DeSantis campaign: The 2024 Republican primary, at present, is a two-candidate contest. And Mr DeSantis is losing.

While losing one state is hardly a death knell for a presidential candidate, losing one’s home state as that state’s incumbent governor is another story entirely. And adding to the pressure is the state’s high delegate count — 125 — and rules declaring that the winner of the state primary will receive all the delegates, rather than apportioning them by vote percentage.

Presidential primaries in the US are decided by the number of votes cast by delegates “won” by individual candidates in various state primaries and caucuses around the country. In 2024, the Republican candidate who successfully wins the nomination will be the individual who secured the votes of at least 1,234 delegates.

Donald Trump’s victory in Florida over his then-rival Marco Rubio, a US senator from the state, in 2016 was seen as the end of Mr Rubio’s campaign; the Florida senator’s campaign cratered after a damaging debate-stage confrontation with Chris Christie. Other candidates such as Sen Ted Cruz and John Kasich suffered similar defeats on their home turfs, paving Mr Trump’s path to the nomination.

Mr DeSantis remains the only other Republican polling above the 10 per cent margin in this poll and many other surveys of the 2024 field. At present, the surveys suggest that the Florida governor is the sole contender with a shot at beating the former president, but he has yet to rebound in support after a muffled entrance into the field.

Still, other Republicans like Nikki Haley and Chris Christie are likely to make it on the debate stage alongside the former president, and could shift the dynamics of the race if they are able to mount effective attacks against him.

The Florida Atlantic University’s poll surveyed likely 315 GOP primary voters in Florida between 27 June and 1 July, with a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.