“In a hypothetical poll, done by one of the worst pollsters of them all, the Amazon Washington Post/ABC, which predicted I would lose to Crooked Hillary by 15 points (how did that work out?), Sleepy Joe, Pocahontas and virtually all others would beat me in the General Election,” the president wrote in a tweet posted on Wednesday morning.
“This is a phony suppression poll, meant to build up their Democrat partners,” he claimed, without any evidence. “I haven’t even started campaigning yet, and am constantly fighting Fake News like Russia, Russia, Russia. Look at North Carolina last night. Dan Bishop, down big in the Polls, WINS. Easier than 2016!”
Mr Trump's unfounded and aggravated comments about the latest national polling arrived as each of the top five Democratic candidates appeared to be gaining ground against the president in the Washington Post-ABC poll released earlier in the week. While Mr Trump was effectively neck-and-neck against Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders in the same July poll, but those four candidates all beat him now by at least four per cent, with Mr Sanders taking a nine-point lead.
The poll showed the president trailing by even wider margins among women, with former Vice President Joe Biden president holding a 30-point lead over Mr Trump among the voting bloc. Ms Harris, Ms Warren and Mr Sanders all hold over 20-point leads among women against the president as well.
It also reflected a continue high for Mr Biden’s campaign, which saw its two biggest polling leads against Mr Trump since it launched in late-April in the last two weeks. The former vice president also had a 16-point lead against Mr Trump in the latest Quinnipiac polling.
While the former vice president remains the frontrunner to beat Mr Trump in a variety of national polls, candidates like Ms Warren, Ms Harris and Mr Sanders have also made significant gains against Mr Biden and there are still several months to go before the first round of primary voting in February.
The poll generally reflects other national surveys that all seem to show each of the top five candidates (and several others) holding leads against Mr Trump. That fact alone should cause doubt about the president’s claims that it is a “phony suppression poll” that was released as part of a coordinated effort between polling companies, media entities and their alleged “Democrat partners”. Moreover, that is not how polling works, and the nationwide joint-poll has been tracking public opinion about the 2020 race for months.
Mr Trump is correct in stating the poll is “hypothetical”. That is true because all polls are hypothetical.
Polling reflects snapshots in time of voters’ attitudes towards candidates and cannot predict outcomes with 100 per cent accuracy. However, the significant gains seen by Democratic candidates against the president — at a time when his approval rating appears to be dipping from his career high of 44 per cent in the middle of the summer — may show weakening support for a second term of Mr Trump's presidency.
Mr Trump’s approval rating fell by 5 per cent since mid-summer to 38 per cent in the latest polling, which also reflected increased fear of a potential oncoming recession.
The president’s popularity has taken a hit amid increasing fears his trade dispute with China will result in global economic decline, as well as several major controversies plaguing his White House.
He has been accused of using his presidency to float his private businesses, hosting world leaders and even US officials like Vice President Mike Pence at Trump properties around the world. Mr Trump also stirred controversy when he suggested hosting the next G7 summit at his financially-struggling resort in Florida — a move House Democrats have vowed to investigate.
The next round of Democratic debates on Thursday will likely play a role in determining whether Mr Biden can maintain his status as the clear frontrunner to take on Mr Trump in the general election, or if any of the other candidates can break out and finally take a lead over the former vice president.
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