Voters like the UK-US reaching a trade deal – they just don’t think Trump will follow it

Less than one-third of UK adults and less than 45 percent of US adults believe Trump will abide by a trade agreement

Across the board, Americans and Britons agree that a free-trade agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom is a good idea, but far fewer are confident that President Donald Trump will abide by whatever deal he strikes.

On Thursday, Trump and Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that the two countries agreed to increase access for U.S. agricultural exports while lowering some levies against the U.K., in the first deal since Trump launched his global trade war.

But polling from last month indicates that details of an agreement are less of a concern to adults in the U.S. or U.K. – instead, most people are wary of Trump’s unpredictability.

While 78 percent of U.S. adults support a free-trade agreement in principle, only 44 percent believe Trump will abide by the terms of an agreement, a Politico and Public First poll conducted last month found.

Fewer than half of US and UK adults trust that President Donald Trump will abide by trade deal terms (AP)

Similarly, 73 percent of U.K. adults said they support the same kind of agreement, but less than 30 percent trust that Trump will keep his word.

A signature of Trump’s public-facing leadership style is unpredictability. He’s known to reverse course on policy approaches and throw people off with sudden sharp rhetoric.

Of the 2,000 U.S. adults surveyed between April 23 and 27, 50 percent said they believe the president’s unpredictability is his biggest barrier when it comes to negotiations.

Those findings are consistent with other polls.

In a PBS/NPR/Marist survey, 62 percent of respondents said the president rushes into changes. In a New York Times/Siena College poll, 66 percent of respondents, including 47 percent of Republicans, said the word “chaotic” described Trump’s second term well.

Given the majority of U.K. adults opposed Trump’s tariffs, they’re likely to approve of the deal, which lifted a 25 percent tariff on steel exports and lowered the 27 percent tariff on automobiles to 10 percent for 100,000 vehicles.

But for U.S. adults, who are currently facing 145 percent tariffs on China, the U.S.’s second-largest trading partner, and general 10 percent tariffs for nearly every one of its trading partners, the U.S.–U.K. deal is less likely to land happily.

While nearly half of Americans believe the U.K. is the most important country to have as an ally, only 20 percent believe it is the most important to have a trade deal with.

Trump had only implemented the 10 percent tariff on the U.K., one of the U.S.’s closest allies. That baseline tariff will remain even after the deal.

Economists have largely agreed that while the U.S.–U.K. deal is good for their relationship, it’s unlikely to make any major economic changes and it certainly won’t serve as a blueprint for other trade deals.