European diplomats ‘terrified’ at prospect of Trump winning in 2024, report says

Trump is neck-and-neck with Biden in early opinion polls

European diplomats are not overlooking the possibility that Donald Trump might secure a second term in the Oval Office if he is re-elected in 2024, and are actively formulating back-up strategies in case this scenario materialises, according to a report.

The prospect of Mr Trump returning to the White House has become an important topic of discussion in private conversations, with some calling it “terrifying”, The New York Times reported.

Steven Everts, a European Union diplomat who is set to become the director of the European Union Institute for Security Studies, told the outlet that his colleagues were relieved at US president Joe Biden’s response to the Ukraine war.

But they are now being “forced to confront the Trump question again”.

“It’s slightly terrifying, it’s fair to say,” he said.

He noted that the US plays an important role in European security, and said that diplomats will now “have to think again about what this means for our own politics, for European defence and for Ukraine itself”.

The discussions around the potential fallout if Mr Trump returns to power are intensifying as the former president is emerging as a strong challenger for the Republican presidential nomination, tying up with his popularity in opinion polls despite a slew of indictments against him.

Fresh polling conducted by the Associated Press-Norc Center for Public Affairs Research revealed that almost two-thirds of Republicans, specifically 63 per cent, are now expressing their desire that the former president run for office again.

This marks a marginal increase from April’s figure of 55 per cent, which was recorded when Mr Trump was beginning to confront a string of criminal allegations. Additionally, Mr Trump’s favourability rating among Republicans has climbed, with seven in 10 respondents holding a positive opinion of him, up from the 60 per cent reported two months earlier.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump greets supporters during a visit to the Iowa State Fair on 12 August (AP)

The possibility that the former president could secure a second term has not escaped the attention of Western Europeans – especially in Germany, given the notable animosity Mr Trump appears to harbour towards the country.

A second term as president “would be different from the first, and much worse”, Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, a former official in the German government, told the Times.

“Trump has experience now and knows what levers to pull, and he’s angry,” he said.

He added that the former chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel, had known how to deal with Mr Trump and had talked about “managing the man”.

One of the primary concerns of US allies pertains to the potential impact of a Trump comeback on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a situation in which many European countries have significant involvement.

During his presidency, Mr Trump threatened to withdraw Washington from Nato, and withheld assistance from Ukraine as it grappled with a Russian-supported rebellion – a matter that contributed to his first impeachment.

He also gave the order to withdraw thousands of US troops from Germany, in a decision that was subsequently reversed by Mr Biden.

If Mr Trump returned to power following the 2024 election, it is possible that Ukraine will still be in deep conflict with Russia, a country that has continued to make subtle and even direct threats to use nuclear weapons in the region.

Mr Trump has said he would end the war in a day, which analysts have said suggests that he would force Ukraine to cede territory to Russia.