Venezuela’s national debt stands at around $150 billion. What happens now after the US attack?

Which entities owe money, what could be included in a restructuring and who might be knocking on Venezuela’s door to collect?

The potential removal of President Nicolas Maduro has brought Venezuela's significant debt crisis – one of the world's largest unresolved sovereign defaults – sharply into focus.

Following years of severe economic turmoil and stringent US sanctions that effectively cut the nation off from international capital markets, Venezuela officially defaulted in late 2017. This occurred after it failed to make payments on international bonds issued by both the government and its state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA).

Since then, the total external liabilities have dramatically expanded beyond the original face value of the bonds. This increase is due to accumulated interest and a multitude of legal claims stemming from past expropriations.

Intriguingly, Venezuela's distressed debt has seen a rally since Donald Trump took office, as speculators wager on the prospect of significant political change within the country.

Below is a look at which entities owe money, what could be included in a restructuring and who might be knocking on Caracas' door to collect.

How much does Venezuela owe?

Analysts estimate that Venezuela has about $60 billion of defaulted bonds outstanding. However, total external debt including PDVSA obligations, bilateral loans and arbitration awards stand at roughly $150-$170 billion, depending on how accrued interest and court judgments are counted, according to analysts.

The International Monetary Fund estimates Venezuela's nominal GDP at about $82.8 billion for 2025, implying a debt-to-GDP ratio of between 180 per cent to 200 per cent.

Maduro was captured by US forces on Saturday (White House)

A PDVSA bond originally maturing in 2020 was secured by a majority stake in U.S.-based refiner Citgo, which is ultimately owned by Caracas-headquartered PDVSA. Citgo is an asset now at the center of court-supervised efforts by creditors to recover value.

Who holds what?

Years of sanctions, including a prohibition on trading Venezuela’s debt, have made it hard to keep tabs on ownership.

The largest share of commercial creditors likely consists of international bondholders, including specialist distressed-debt investors, sometimes called vulture funds.

Among the creditors is a group of companies awarded compensation through international arbitration after assets were expropriated by Caracas. U.S. courts have upheld multi-billion-dollar awards to ConocoPhillips and Crystallex among others, turning those claims into debt obligations and allowing creditors to pursue Venezuelan assets to make themselves whole.

A growing pool of court-recognized claimants is competing for recovery from Citgo’s parent company through U.S. legal proceedings. A Delaware court registered about $19 billion in claims for the auction of PDV Holding, Citgo's parent, which far exceeds the estimated value of Citgo's total assets. PDV Holding is PDVSA’s wholly-owned subsidiary.

Caracas also has bilateral creditors, primarily China and Russia, which extended loans to both Maduro and his mentor, former president Hugo Chavez.

Precise numbers are hard to verify since Venezuela has not published comprehensive debt statistics in years.

A distant restructuring?

Given the plethora of claims, legal proceedings and political uncertainty, a formal restructuring is expected to be complex and lengthy.

Shoppers line up to buy eggs in Caracas, Venezuela on Sunday (AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos)

A sovereign debt workout could be anchored by an IMF program setting fiscal targets and debt-sustainability assumptions. However, Venezuela has not had an IMF annual consultation in nearly two decades and remains locked out of the lender’s financing.

U.S. sanctions are another obstacle. Since 2017, restrictions imposed under both Republican and Democratic administrations have sharply limited Venezuela's ability to issue or restructure debt without explicit licenses from the U.S. Treasury.

It is unclear what will happen with U.S. sanctions. For now, President Donald Trump has said the U.S. will "run" the oil-producing nation.

What are recovery values?

Bonds have returned some 95 per cent at the index level in 2025.

Many of them currently trade between 27-32 cents on the dollar, MarketAxess data shows.

Citigroup analysts in November estimated that a principal haircut of at least 50 per cent would be needed to restore debt sustainability and satisfy potential conditions from the IMF.

Under Citi’s base case, Venezuela could offer creditors a 20-year bond with a coupon of around 4.4 per cent, alongside a 10-year zero-coupon note to compensate for past-due interest. Using an exit yield of 11 per cent, Citi estimates the net present value of the package in the mid-40s cents on the dollar, with recoveries potentially rising into the high-40s if Venezuela were to hand out additional contingent instruments such as oil-linked warrants.

Other investors sketch a wider range. Aberdeen Investments said in September it had initially assumed recoveries of around 25 cents on the dollar for Venezuelan bonds, but that improved political and sanctions scenarios could lift recoveries into the low-to-mid-30s, depending on the structure of any deal and the use of oil-linked or GDP-style instruments.

What is Venezuela’s economic situation?

Recovery assumptions sit against a grim backdrop.

Venezuela’s economy shrank dramatically after 2013 when oil production fell off a cliff, inflation spiraled and poverty surged. Although output has stabilized somewhat, lower global oil prices and discounts to Venezuela's crude prices limit revenue gains, leaving little room to service debt without deep restructuring. The recent U.S. blockade of sanctioned oil tankers has exacerbated the situation.

Trump said American oil companies were prepared to tackle the difficult task of entering Venezuela and investing to restore production but details and timelines remain unclear. Chevron is the only American major currently operating in Venezuela's oil fields.