India ready to discuss Kashmiri autonomy

The first clear sign that Delhi is working on a new political gameplan for Kashmir came yesterday when the territory's chief minister announced that the Indian government had agreed to discuss autonomy.

The move came two days after 27 Hindus were killed in a Kashmir shanty town by Islamic militants masquerading as holy men, in an attack that raised new fears of a war between India and Pakistan over the disputed territory.

Until 1953, Kashmir enjoyed autonomy in all areas except for defence, finance and communications. This has been steadily eroded but the ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been vehemently opposed to even a partial return to the earlier arrangement. Two years ago, Atal Behari Vajpayee's government summarily rejected a resolution by the Kashmir assembly demanding autonomy.

Nobody seriously expects a restoration of full autonomy, but for the BJP-led government, to agree even to discuss the issue is a major political step.

The move comes at a time when Delhi is engaged in intense, parallel negotiations with the chief minister, Dr Farooq Abdullah, and Kashmiri separatist groups over the timing and context of the next state assembly elections.

The term of Dr Abdullah's government expires on 14 October. As a condition for their participation, separatist leaders want to see him out, central rule imposed and elections held in March.

The separatist groups believe that as long as the National Conference is in power, Mr Vajpayee would be unable to deliver his promise to hold free and fair elections.

Dr Abdullah is bargaining hard to extract concessions in return for a poll postponement. The autonomy talks provide him with a face-saver – he can claim he has forced Delhi to change its stand on an issue that has popular support in the Muslim-dominated valley.

But the shift in Delhi's position also sends out a signal to separatist groups that despite opposition from Hindu radicals, Mr Vajpayee commands enough authority to push through a new initiative on Kashmir.

"There's no doubt about it, we're determined to make the next assembly elections into a landmark event," an aide to Mr Vajpayee said.

Delhi appears to have decided to unveil its Kashmir strategy in a calibrated manner, and the next move will be revealed later this month when Mr Vajpayee is expected to visit Srinagar.