Berlin's opposition to war softens as it takes UN seat Â

Hopes of a louder European voice at the United Nations with the accession of Germany to the Security Council already appears to be fading as Berlin signals a softening of its stance on war with Iraq.

As Germany and Spain join the Council as non-permanent members for two years, the body is more European-heavy than it has been in years. Yet American dominance in the chamber may be barely affected.

Antagonism in Berlin to a possible armed onslaught on Iraq, stoked by Chancellor Gerhard Schröder during his campaign for re-election in the summer, already seems to be dissipating, for example.

"Opposition to a war was very useful to Mr Schröder in getting votes, but Germany's positions on the Security Council on Iraq are going to have to be more nuanced," one senior diplomat noted yesterday.

Indeed, the next few weeks are going to be a delicate challenge for the German government in New York, particularly when it assumes the one-month-long presidency of the Security Council in February, the month when the Iraqi crisis is most likely to come to a head.

Opposing the US on any push to invade Iraq will carry great risks for Germany and what it perceives to be its national interest. Berlin is anxious to use the next two years to build its case eventually to become a permanent Security Council member – a prize it will be loath to jeopardise by antagonising President Bush with a principled stance on Iraq.

Nor is there likely to be much mileage in trying to forge a united European position on the crisis. While the EU ambassadors meet weekly at the UN to discuss Security Council business, officials concede that when it comes to Iraq there is scant EU coordination.

This is a reflection of divergent priorities in European capitals. While Germany will have domestic political reasons at least to be wary of a military solution, Spain, with terrorist concerns of its own, will more willingly fall into America's slipstream.

That Germany is now diluting its anti-war rhetoric became clear from comments made this week by Mr Schröder. "We Germans know from experience that sometimes only violence can stop dictators," he said. Berlin still vows not to participate in any invasion, however.

While the clout of America is overwhelming in New York, it nonetheless will face serious obstacles in the Council this month if ongoing weapons inspections in Iraq fail to turn up evidence of violations. Few observers imagine the Council passing a resolution to authorise military force in that circumstance. The hour of truth for Washington – and for the Prime Minister, Tony Blair – may come after 27 January, the deadline for the chief weapons inspector, Hans Blix, to submit his first comprehensive report on the progress of inspections. Any empty report card from Mr Blix – with nothing to prove Iraqi malfeasance – would be likely first to trigger anguished debate within Washington over what to do next. The President, George Bush,1 has still made no decision on whether to go to war.

Berlin moved yesterday to knock down a report in an Iranian newspaper that the German Foreign Minster, Joschka Fischer, had told his Iranian counterpart, Kamal Kharrazi, in a telephone call that Washington and Moscow were considering a plan to persuade Saddam Hussein to leave power and go to Moscow, thus avoiding the need for bloodshed.