Erdogan’s victory in Turkey shows the world can’t give up political strongmen

Biden's win over Trump and the removal of Brazil's Bolsanaro had suggested a sea change, writes Kim Sengupta. But from China and Egypt to Hungary, Russia and Turkey, authoritarian leaders are still making waves

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the wake of his election win (Umit Bektas/Reuters)

The rate of inflation in Turkey is 44 per cent and the number of those employed is the lowest among the OECD’s 38 countries at 53 per cent. The lira is at a record low against the dollar. And the opposition candidate came within 4 per cent of winning the presidency. But the figures that count are that Recep Tayyip Erdogan has extended his two decades in power by another five years.

The pollsters and analysts had predicted that this time, at long last, Erdogan could be beaten. His chief rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, got to the second round in voting, and major cities remained in the hands of the president’s opponents. But, in the end, the majority of Turkey’s conservative electorate chose to stick with the veteran autocrat.

Erdogan’s victory is not an isolated case internationally. Not so long ago, following Donald Trump’s loss to Joe Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu’s removal as prime minister in Israel and the defeat of Jair Bolsonaro to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil, there was talk that the age of the strongman was over.

But the tide against right-wing populism did not turn for long. Netanyahu is back as Israel’s prime minister seeking to enforce judicial changes aimed at securing himself against criminal prosecution. And there remains the possibility that Trump, despite the legal cases he faces, may well win the Republican nomination, and then make a vengeful return to the White House by beating Biden.

Other authoritarian leaders have not been in any danger of losing. Narendra Modi’s popularity in India remains extremely high. Viktor Orban’s illiberal politics may cause deep disquiet in the European Union, but strikes a chord with the Hungarian electorate.

Among those not needing an electoral mandate, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman feels empowered to refuse Biden’s call for him to raise oil production. The de-facto leader of Saudi Arabia is building bridges with Iran in a deal forged by China, where Xi Jinping has further consolidated his power.

China’s president is forging a “no limits friendship” with Russia where Vladimir Putin shows no sign of going, despite the fervent wishes of Ukraine and its Western allies. Kim Jong-un, in neighbouring North Korea, is continuing to build ballistic missiles and threaten South Korea and Japan. In Egypt, the most populous Arab state – with the largest army in the region – Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is firmly ensconced as ruler. Bashar al-Assad, having survived the revolution in Syria with the help of Russia and Iran, is being welcomed back into the Middle-Eastern fold, and has now been invited to Cop28.

Living in an uncertain and dangerous world has helped autocrats. Russia invaded Ukraine and the Covid-19 pandemic almost certainly originated in China, but the huge upheavals these caused appear to have led to a wish for rulers who are viewed to be strong and decisive.

Listening to Erdogan’s victory address in Istanbul, Eren Bolukbasi, a 55-year-old teacher, said she felt overwhelming relief: “We have a war going on in Europe, wars going on in Africa, a big food crisis. This is not the time to experiment, we want someone who has the experience of being a powerful leader, who will look after our country’s interest”. The people around her concurred.

Putin and Xi were the among the first ones to congratulate Erdogan for his victory. All three were the among the first to congratulate Donald Trump when he won the US election in 2016 – and also the last to do so when Joe Biden won in 2020.

After the Turkish election, Trump posted on his platform, Truth Social: “Congratulations to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on his big and well deserved victory in Turkey. I know him well, he is a friend, and have learned first hand how much he loves his Country and the great people of Turkey, which he has lifted to a new level of prominence and respect!”

Trump, in the White House, called Xi “president for life” – not a term used even by the Chinese Communist Party. “I think it’s a great idea, maybe we’ll have to give it a shot someday,” he joked at a meeting of his donors. He sent his “sincere congratulations” to Sisi after the latter awarded himself a 97 per cent referendum victory.

Trump was no longer president when the last Brazilian election took place. What unfolded may have changed had that not been the case. During the election campaign, the former US President had given Bolsanaro his “complete endorsement” while castigating Lula and his supporters as “ radical left maniacs”.

The Biden administration told the Brazilian security establishment that Washington would not tolerate interference with the result. The message from a Trump White House could have been very different. It’s not as if the CIA is unfamiliar with replacing democratic governments in Latin America with client military juntas.

The Ukraine war has shown the difficulties liberal democracies face in a multipolar world with states led by strong leaders. China and India have effectively ignored the sanctions imposed against Russia by the West. The states of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, or Brics, have strengthened their bonds. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey are reported to be negotiating to join.

South Africa has issued blanket diplomatic immunity to those attending the Brics summit in August, a move to help ensure that Putin will be able to travel to Johannesburg despite an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant for his arrest over atrocities committed by Russian forces in Ukraine.

A pivotal moment for the war would come next year with the US election. Trump, as president, never had a bad word to say about Putin – in clear contrast to his regular castigating of European Nato allies. He had stated that he would accept the Russian annexation of Crimea. Much of his support base, and high-profile figures like Tucker Carlson, have regularly blamed Ukraine and Volodymyr Zelensky over the conflict.

It may turn out that the outcome of the Ukraine war – the most seismic event since the fall of the Berlin Wall and, later, 9/11 and its aftermath – will be decided by a strongman who returns to the White House and the most powerful position in the world.