Huge problems ahead for mission to unify a continent

The most ambitious and problematic expansion plan ever contemplated by the EU was approved yesterday by the European Commission, with the promise of reuniting a continent divided by war and ideology throughout the last century.

Ten countries, mainly former Communist states, were told they should be ready to join the EU in 2004, with a further two – Bulgaria and Romania – pencilled in for membership in 2007. The new EU will extend through central and eastern Europe encompassing Slovenia – part of the former Yugoslavia – and the Baltic outposts of the old Soviet empire: Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

With enlargement destined to transform the EU, Romano Prodi, the European Commission president, said that Europe was poised to fulfil an act of reconciliation demanded since the fall of the Berlin Wall. It was, he argued, nothing short of the "historical reunification of our continent".

Despite the high-flown rhetoric the huge difficulties ahead were made clear when the European Commission's report highlighted a litany of problems in the 10 applicant countries.

The official report concluded that Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Cyprus and Malta should be able to join an EU of 25 countries and more than 450 million people in time for the European elections in June 2004. Brussels also endorsed a Bulgarian and Romanian target of joining the club in 2007, and did not shut the door shut on Turkey – the ugly duckling of the enlargement push – although there was no mention of a date to start negotiation on its membership bid. After crucial elections next month, EU leaders will have to decide what to offer Ankara.

Yesterday's decision marks the beginning of the final stretch of the tortuous enlargement process under which the aspiring members have had to agree to match 80,000 pages of EU law. The existing 15 member states must now agree a financial package to be offered to the new countries and rubber stamp their candidature at a year-end summit in Copenhagen.

But little more than a year away from accession, almost all the candidate countries have weaknesses in their government administrations and suffer from corruption and crime, including human trafficking. So concerned are the authorities in Brussels about the continuing difficulties that they will introduce unprecedented safeguards for the EU member states in the first two years after enlargement. And they will also conduct another survey, six months before the new countries are due to join, to make sure they have made the progress they promised between now and next year.

The nervousness is justified by the fact that this latest enlargement is infinitely more challenging than any previous one. The last EU expansion in 1995 admitted three small and wealthy nations: Austria, Finland and Sweden.

This time the 10 nations who will join have a total gross domestic product roughly equivalent to the Netherlands, one of the existing EU's medium-sized countries. In Poland, by far the biggest of the candidate countries, about one in four of the 38 million population gain some income from farming.

Gunther Verheughen, the European commissioner for enlargement, conceded that this will be "unlike any other enlargement we have had. We have to be honest we cannot know what difficulties there will be in the first two years."

In parts his report was scathing. Of Poland, for example, it argued: "Corruption remains a cause for serious concern, a comprehensive strategy has been adopted to combat the problem. Substantial efforts are required to ensure concrete results which to date have been limited and, in particular, to develop a political, administrative a business culture which can resist corruption."

Similar criticisms were levelled at Hungary where the Commission also pointed out that the Roma population "continue to suffer discrimination" – a problem also identified in the Czech Republic. Slovenia was told that a case backlog in its court system needed to be tackled.

Lithuania was told to improve its environmental performance and reinforce its enforcement of data protection laws, beef up external border controls and step up its fight against bribery.

In essence Mr Verheughen's report argued that, while huge problems remain, they can be overcome between now and 2004.

To keep up the pressure there will be another report six months before the candidates join the EU to assess progress. And, for two years after their accession, the Commission will have powers to take special emergency measures to safeguard the internal market.

Officials said that the Commission would, for example, be entitled to revoke recognition of qualifications for groups of professionals – stopping them working in the rest of the EU – if certain countries fail to get their standards up to scratch.

The economic challenge remains formidable and even optimists believe it will take a decade to absorb 10 nations whose per capita gross domestic product is less than 40 per cent of the EU average.

But this presents opportunities too. Gary Titley, vice-president of the socialist group of MEPs responsible for enlargement, argued: "The new countries' economies will expand very rapidly and create new demand. When Spain and Portugal joined people said the EU would have floods of immigrants. In fact, because of the new opportunities created by the growing economy, many Spaniards already working in the UK went home."

For enlargement to stay on track other problems remain, however, including the status of divided Cyprus. If there is no agreement to re-unite the island, EU leaders will admit the Greek portion of Cyprus, a move which could provoke a crisis in relations with Turkey.

Moreover the Nice Treaty, which sets out institutional changes needed for the EU to operate with 10 more countries, cannot pass into law unless the Irish vote "yes" in the forthcoming referendum. Mr Verheughen made plain the threat that a "no" vote would pose. "If the treaty of Nice is rejected in Ireland, I don't know how we can continue with enlargement; I don't know whether we can," he said.