Ireland names the date for 'moment of truth' Nice vote

The Irish government yesterday named the date for its second referendum on the Nice Treaty in what promises to be a moment of truth for the EU's ambitions to admit up to 10 new countries.

With the shock "no'' vote in last June's vote on Nice blamed on voter apathy, the Irish government is going to unprecedented lengths to maximise turnout. Next month's referendum will be on 19 October, the first time Ireland has held a national vote on a Saturday.

A weekend referendum may help bring out potential "yes" voters, including affluent, well-educated urban voters and students who are registered in constituencies away from their colleges. In 2001 less than one-third of those entitled to cast a vote did so; being too busy will not be an excuse this time, the yes campaigners hope.

Nevertheless, opinion polls suggest that the government, which has been under growing criticism since its recent re-election, has its work cut out if it is to secure a positive result.

A recent survey of 1,000 voters carried out by Millward Brown IMS for the international bank Citigroup, found that 29 per cent intend to vote yes, 19 per cent no, while the overwhelming majority of 44 per cent say they don't know.

With such a high proportion undecided, polling experts say the result is too close to call.

The stakes are high, both for the EU's planned enlargement and for Ireland's role in Europe.

Before it can come into force, all 15 member states have to ratify the Nice Treaty which lays down some of the minimum changes in EU decision-making required to admit such a big group of new entrants.

A second Irish no would create huge practical difficulties in admitting the new, mainly eastern European nations which are expected to join in 2004.

Without ratification of Nice, some of the changes it outlines could be added to the treaties of accession which will have to be agreed with the new members. But it would be politically controversial, effectively bypassing the will of the Irish electorate. Worse, a no vote could create a political crisis by giving countries which are less enthusiastic about enlargement a pretext for demanding a delay.

Meanwhile, Dublin could also face a backlash, being blamed for wrecking the EU's attempt at an historic reconciliation of the continent. Some politicians have even suggested a new clause which would suspend from the EU countries which reject treaty changes.

After a Cabinet meeting in Donegal, the Irish premier Bertie Ahern urged everyone to support the Nice Treaty, saying a second rejection would be a disaster for Ireland and the applicant countries.

Before last year's no vote Ireland had been considered one of the EU's most enthusiastic members. The no campaign said Ireland would lose its military neutrality, its control of immigration, and its status as a big economic beneficiary of the EU in an enlarged Europe.

Some also appealed to voters' bewilderment with the slogan, "If you don't know, vote no". That confusion is still a significant feature, according to the Referendum Commission, which polled 300 people and found just 16 per cent felt they understood the Nice Treaty, and only 24 per cent of young voters planned to participate.