Italian Election: Northern League poised on threshold of power

THE CHANCES of a right-wing government depend upon the Northern League, but the future of the League itself will depend on how it behaves now it is on the threshold of power, writes Patricia Clough in Rome.

It is testing time for Umberto Bossi, the rough, vulgarly outspoken political genius, who came from nowhere to lead the first genuine revolt against the old political guard, its corruption and bad government.

Mr Bossi expressed the resentment of the efficient, industrious north at being - as they saw it - bled through taxes to finance a parasitical south. Rome was seen as a thieving and corrupt machine, which denied the north freedom to enjoy the fruits of its hard work.

Secession was a buzzword, although Mr Bossi denies it was his aim. But a federation - that is, a loose association of two or three Italies, each raising its taxes and with its own laws and economic policies - remains the League's unswerving aim. So does a Thatcherite, free-market economic policy.

The League's triumphal advance through the north seemed unstoppable until last autumn's municipal elections, when it became clear Mr Bossi's earthy appeal did not work on the more sophisticated northern fringes, such as Genoa, Venice and Trieste, and could not be exported to the centre and the south.

Since then, Silvio Berlusconi has appeared and many League voters have deserted to his Forza Italia. There are suggestions he may woo the League's members of parliament.

Mr Bossi has strong potential leverage: a right-wing government would not be feasible without the League, and as a price he could extract something approaching federalism or at least strong regional autonomy. If he fails, and still joins the new government, he and the League will lose credibility.