'Membership of the EU would mark the culmination of all Ataturk's work'

Although potentially embarrassing for European diplomacy, the deus ex machina arrival of the Americans illustrated how the Turkey/EU negotiations have a dimension that stretches far beyond the borders of both. Turkey's long and deep commitment to secularism, its relative stability in the world's most tumultuous region, its solidity over five decades in Nato all make it of vital importance for the US that the accession talks proceed. The last thing either the US or Europe need is a Turkey that is angry and ready to peel away.

Kemal Ataturk created his nation out of the ashes of empire with the clear goal of making for the Turks a modern, secular, European nation state. What was intended to get under way yesterday in Luxembourg was another such step. Nobody in Turkey doubts the importance of the fact of accession talks finally starting, 42 years after it became an associate member. This is where Turkey has been going since 1923, or since the turn of the 19th century, or since the siege of Vienna - whenever the Big Look West is deemed to have begun.

That it remains the national dream is without question. But more and more influential Turks are asking themselves whether Europe wants Turkey any more; whether Turkey really needs Europe: and if the answer to both those questions is "no", then what are the new roads that open up?

Haluk Sahin, Turkey's most respected television news anchor, said: "It's the way the debate is being carried out by the French and the Austrians that offends us. I've always thought Europe would be very good for Turkey, with its higher standards of democracy, free speech and so on, and that pursuing these criteria would give Turkey a boost. But there are moments when I find myself thinking about the psychological costs. Do I have to allow them to insult me in these racist, demeaning terms?"

Mehmet Ali Birand, a leading writer, said: "Membership of the EU would be the culmination of everything Ataturk did. It will mean that our crisis of identity - does Turkey belong to European values or the Islamic world? - will be over. But we are still waiting at the gates of Vienna. The Europeans have made such a big mess of it."

Turks are making this complaint in measurable numbers. The accession talks were supposed to start last December, and if they had done, public support was at 75 per cent. Less than a year on it is down to 60 per cent.

When the leader of the extremist Nationalist Action Party rallied his supporters in Ankara on Sunday, the tens of thousands who turned up, waving banners that read "We don't believe in the EU" were of the political fringe. But what they are saying reflects the hurt pride of the masses. The argument is also heard, with increasing confidence, that Turkey's membership of the EU is not for Turkey to win but for Europe to lose.

"Turkey's performance in the last two and a half to three years has eliminated all the excuses against our bid," Mr Erdogan said. Europe, he said "will either show the political maturity to become a global actor ... or it will become a Christian club."

The solitary Austrian holdout obscures the fact that right across the EU, doubts about Turkish entry are manifold. Opposition averages at 50 per cent; in Austria it is 80. Britain is seen to be in favour because the arrival of Turkey would permanently wrest the EU out of the control of the French and Germans; for that very reason deep apprehension remains in those states.

Yet overshadowing all such calculations is the fear that a snub could have brought the 42-year Turkish-European courtship juddering to a halt. Beyond that is the fear of what kind of a neighbour an embittered and isolated Turkey could become.