Spain's government could fall by the weekend as Rajoy faces no-confidence vote

Socialists could install new prime minister and call fresh elections for the autumn

Spain’s government could fall by the weekend, as the country’s MPs prepare for a Friday vote of no confidence that could topple centre-right prime minister Mariano Rajoy.

The congress of deputies debated the motion on Thursday, with the opposition Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) urging the chamber’s constellation of smaller parties to vote against the scandal-hit administration.

The outcome of the vote in the 350-seat congress of deputies in Madrid is on a knife-edge, with the outcome far from certain and dependent on the way the minor and regionalist parties vote.

In Brussels and around the world the episode is seen as a key test of eurozone stability, compounding the political deadlock in Italy over the formation of a possible eurosceptic populist government.

“Are you ready to step down here and now? Resign and everything will end,” PSOE leader Pedro Sanchez told the prime minister. “Mr Rajoy, your time is up.”

But Mr Rajoy, who has been in office since 2011, hit back: “Everybody knows that Pedro Sanchez is never going to win the elections and this is the reason for his motion, his urgency.”

The maths of the vote hinges on which way five MPs from a Basque nationalist group votes. The group worries that an incoming government that replaced Mr Rajoy could cut payments to the region, but Mr Sanchez has said he would leave funding in place. Spanish media late on Thursday reported that the regionalists would back the no-confidence motion.

The motion comes after a series of kickback scandals which have forced the resignations of government ministers.

Mr Rajoy, your time is up

Pedro Sanchez, PSOE leader

If the Rajoy government survives this no-confidence vote, it could be set to face others triggered by other opposition parties. If it loses, Mr Sanchez would likely become prime minister and call new elections for the autumn.

Fresh elections are expected to see Mr Rajoy’s Partido Popular (PP) suffer: the group has slipped into fourth place on just 18 per cent in a recent poll by firm electoPanel.

With the field as it is, gains would be expected for centre-right liberal populists Ciudadanos (Citizens), relative political newcomers who have gained popularity by staunchly opposing Catalan independence. They want to centralise Spain’s highly devolved system and as such are seen as a threat to Basque autonomy by the five Basque MPs.

The centre-left PSOE and left-wing Unidos Podemos are in second and third position on 23 per cent and 20 per cent each, according to the same survey. On these numbers it would be unlikely any one party would have the seats to form a majority were fresh elections held.

Ciudadanos is refusing to vote for the PSOE motion because it wants snap elections immediately while it is in poll position – rather than in the autumn. Podemos, whose main focus is on ending austerity, is backing the PSOE motion. Spain most recently held general elections in 2011, 2015, and 2016.