Putin has finally pushed Trump too far – and will pay the price

The US president’s decision to impose sanctions on Russian oil firms is a move that shows he’s losing patience with Putin, writes Keir Giles. But more action will be needed to change the course of the war

Russian president Vladimir Putin is attempting to overcome many seemingly impossible tasks in his drive to challenge the West and re-establish Moscow’s dominion over its former empire. But in at least one, he seems to have succeeded. With Wednesday’s announcement by the United States that it would impose sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, Putin’s intransigence appears, finally, to have overcome the extreme reluctance of Donald Trump to use any of the enormous power of the US against Moscow.

The sanctions, levied against the energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil, effectively cut the firms off from American banking systems and financial institutions.

They follow the latest iteration of a repetitive cycle of Trump calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine, and Putin declining to cooperate. On all previous occasions, Trump’s promises of consequences for Russia have turned out to be empty; and the US president’s apparent frustration with Putin has meant little compared to the underlying tide of US decisions curtailing support for Ukraine and Europe.

But in this instance, the final straw may have been the promise of a meeting between Trump and Putin in Budapest, called off after it became clear that there was nothing to discuss.

The latest twist will again lead commentators to announce that Putin has “miscalculated”. But this time, finally, they may be correct. Putin has consistently played on Trump’s misplaced respect and deference for him – publicly demonstrated once again after their meeting in Alaska in August, when Trump proudly displayed a photograph of the two men together supplied by the Russian side.

Until the latest US decision, it appeared that Putin had allowed Trump to believe in the prospect of another summit, got what he wanted, and then didn’t even need to turn up.

The latest planned meeting between the two came to nothing, with the US president imposing oil sanctions soon after the breakdown (Getty)

Putin may well have never been interested in travelling to a summit in Europe at all, given the risk that countries he would have to overfly would not be willing to overlook the fact that he is an internationally wanted war criminal whose aircraft are banned from EU airspace.

Instead, the new US sanctions on Russia mark a dramatic break from the previous pattern of the Trump administration putting pressure only on Ukraine.

It also suggests a tacit admission by Washington that Trump’s consistent claims about Russia being interested in a ceasefire, or finding a “deal” with Trump, have little basis in reality. Russian officials are, for once, telling the truth when they point out that throughout Trump’s repeated U-turns on what he is demanding from Ukraine and requesting from Russia, Moscow’s position has remained entirely consistent.

In fact, there’s been no reason at all to think that Russia was interested in a ceasefire, other than Trump saying so. Meanwhile, last night, as every night, Russia continues its mass strikes against the most vulnerable in Ukrainian society, including a drone strike on a kindergarten in Kharkiv.

It will come as a surprise to many people that after successive rounds of sanctions – now numbering 19 separate packages from the EU, for instance – apparently obvious targets like Russian oil majors remained off the lists.

Even the UK had only targeted Rosneft and Lukoil a week beforehand. To some extent, that’s a reflection of how sanctions are expensive for the side imposing them as well as the target. Questions remain over what to do with Russian assets abroad almost four years after they were frozen, because of fears over the legal implications for similar assets worldwide.

And the long delays before the EU finally banned import of Russian liquefied natural gas resulted in part from Europe’s self-imposed dependence on Russian energy.

Even with the new US sanctions in place, a lot will depend on how they are enforced and whether there is the will to sustain them – Trump has already said he hopes they will not be in place “for long”.

But significantly, the new sanctions are not the only US measures that will give Russia pause for thought. They are accompanied by practical steps lifting US-imposed restraints on how Ukraine can fight the war, reportedly including limitations on the use of long-range missiles for strikes against targets deep inside Russia. Major roadblocks to support for Ukraine have been removed with the reported transfer of authority for key decisions from Trump appointees in the Pentagon to US European Command (EUCOM), which customarily has a much clearer understanding of the threat that Russia’s ambitions pose to US interests.

Together, the latest US steps may indicate that Putin has at long last found the limit of US tolerance for his toying with Trump. That may lead to a rethink of how Moscow manages the relationship with Washington. But it won’t cause Russia to reassess its objectives in this war, or whether it thinks it is succeeding in them.

That would take a far more substantial and permanent change in attitude from the United States, alongside meaningful European intervention. Both of those remain highly unlikely; but unless and until they happen, the war will continue.