Why Turkey’s presidential run-off matters for the world

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears on course to extend his 20 years in power, as a man who charts his own path whatever the consequences for allies, writes Chris Stevenson

Supporters of Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a campaign rally on Friday (AP)

Two weeks ago, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Turkey – the country he leads – stood at a crossroads. After 20 years in power, either as prime minister or president, there was rising optimism among an energised opposition that he could be forced out via the ballot box.

A six-party-strong coalition had united behind the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Kemal Kilicdaroglu, and the soft-spoken 74-year-old had the lead in opinion polls prior to the presidential election. Perhaps not enough to win outright in the first round of voting – a candidate would need more than 50 per cent of the vote – but certainly enough to force a run-off with Erdogan, who heads the Justice and Development Party (AKP).

Focusing on the Turkish economy – which has been on a downward spiral for years, with soaring inflation fuelled by Erdogan’s unorthodox policy of keeping interest rates down – Kilicdaroglu’s message ahead of the first round of voting was one of wholesale reform. Allied to anger over the government’s slow response to devastating earthquakes in February that killed 50,000 people, and disquiet among many young people over the authoritarian turn the country has taken as Erdogan has consolidated power around the presidency, opposition parties were confident that the population was ready to usher in a fresh start. Certainly Erdogan looked to be in his most vulnerable position for years.