Turks' protest vote may sweep Islamist party into power

Pity the Turks. Angered by corruption scandals and endemic pork-barrelling, they have in every election for the past 12 years voted out the old and taken up an alternative in the hope of good government.

Yet each has become another failed experiment – the most recent coalition plunged the country into its worst recession in living memory.

Such is the frustration on the streets that, come Sunday's elections, voters are poised, once again, to deliver a resounding protest by voting in a new Islamic-leaning party with no government experience.

Polls show that the Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by a popular former mayor of Istanbul, is the clear front-runner, with about 30 per cent of the vote in a field of 23 parties. The nearest contender, the left-leaning Republican People's Party (CHP), has about 18 per cent. None of the three parties in power is even likely to pass the national 10 per cent threshold needed to post MPs to parliament.

An AKP victory on Sunday would not, however, mean that Turkey is becoming more Islamic. Surveys show that religious hardliners account for only a fourth of the votes the AKP is likely to receive. The fact is most Turkish voters will go to the ballot box to vent their rage at years of bad government and to give the unknown a chance.

But the prospect of an AKP victory in Turkey, a Nato member, is worrying for the secularist establishment and military, who in 1997 forced from power the first Islamist-led government in what was described as a "soft coup". Staunch secularists speak darkly of the popular AKP leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, being a "wolf in sheep's guise" and fear he will introduce an Islamic agenda if he takes power.

The idea of an AKP-led government is also unnerving to Turkey's Western allies. America is lobbying Brussels to give Turkey some hope of EU membership at a European Union summit next month. A date with Europe, Washington hopes, will temper any extremist tendencies. But the AKP, one of two parties to emerge from the ashes of a banned Islamist party, says it has changed. Gone are the heavy beards, vows of pan-Islamic unity and restrictions on free-market economics. Mr Erdogan and his friends are now pro-EU and even supportive of American military action in Iraq.They have organised briefings in European boardrooms to convince wary investors of their commitment to IMF-backed fiscal policies.

Mr Erdogan cannot actually run in the election. He is barred from politics for once reciting a poem at a public rally that the secularist courts found inflamed religious hatred. But so confident is he of victory that his latest campaign slogan urges voters to give him enough of a majority for a single-party government.That would allow the AKP to overturn the law under which Mr Erdogan is banned.

In a last-ditch effort, the country's hardline chief prosecutor has asked for the AKP to be barred, arguing that Mr Erdogan is still leading it.

To block the AKP, secularists have rallied behind the left-leaning CHP, led by Deniz Baykal but buoyed hugely by his foreign-educated partner, a former economy minister and one-time World Bank vice-president, Kemal Dervis.

Founded by the secularist nation-builder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the CHP is playing on fears of an AKP win to attract the middle class. "You vote for the CHP because it's a brandname. It's about voting for all the things the Republic stands for," said one municipal employee in Istanbul.

Observers are betting on an AKP-CHP coalition under which Mr Dervis would control the economy. But a prediction is hard because of the 10 per cent threshold rule. With three parties poised to have MPs elected, the AKP appears to be heading for a strong majority.

LEADING THE POLLS TURKEY'S CONTENDERS

Justice and Development Party (AKP) Support: 35 per cent

The leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was once jailed for sedition and is banned from running, but the party is expected to win the election. The only way Mr Erdogan can become Prime Minister is if his party wins a parliamentary majority.

Republican People's Party Support: 19 per cent

Social democrats, led by Deniz Bayka, seen as the only chance of stopping the AKP.

Youth Party Support: 11 per cent

New nationalist party led by the billionaire Cem Uzan,.

True Path Party Support: 9 per cent

Conservative party led by Tansu Ciller, who became Turkey's first female leader.

Democratic Left Party Support: less than 6 per cent

Led by the outgoing Prime Minister, Bulent Ecevit. Socialist with nationalist tendencies.

Nationalist Action Party Support: 7 per cent

The second party in the outgoing coalition. A nationalist party, led by Devlet Bahceli.

Motherland Party Support: 6 per cent

Junior partner in the coalition.