Why Russia retracted state media reports on its Ukraine frontline movements

Potentially significant bulletins available for about 10 minutes before being withdrawn by two state news outlets

The fog of misinformation around the war in Ukraine thickened on Monday after Russia’s state news agencies claimed Vladimir Putin was withdrawing troops from the Dnipro river frontline – and then immediately retracted the update.

The potentially significant bulletins were available for about 10 minutes, after which two state news outlets withdrew them without any follow-up.

The agencies – TASS and RIA Novosti – said that the Russian Ministry of Defence had announced relocations of troops to an unspecified “more advantageous positions” east of the Dnipro river.

It added that the elements from the concerned Dnepr (or Dnieper – as the Dnipro is known in the upper reaches belonging to Russia) grouping of forces will be transferred by the Russian military command to other directions for offensive operations after the regrouping.

TASS apologised for the update shortly after, and said it had “erroneously” reported the military update.

Moscow-affiliated outlet RBK reported the Russian defence ministry as saying the reports of regrouping of its troops were “false” and a “provocation”, despite the reputation of the agencies to reliably report from the Kremlin and ministries.

The two agencies frequently cite sources within the bureaucracies to announce developments prior to the release of official statements, and even carry the Kremlin’s language.

"Having assessed the current situation, the command of the Dnieper group decided to move troops to more advantageous positions east" of the river, RIA-Novosti’s bulletin had claimed in its preliminary update.

It is not immediately clear if the initial update of regrouping was not to be made public, even though it carried little impact on the fighting. The regrouping, however, does confirm Ukraine’s success in having a territorial stronghold around the Dnipro river where Ukrainian soldiers launched a major operation in August this year, and unconfirmed reports in October stated success for Kyiv.

Shortly after the U-turn in Moscow, a flurry of claims ensued from Russia and Ukraine alleging that the other side had faked the reports.

Mr Putin’s close ally and Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on the reports, and referred the questions to the defence ministry.

In Kyiv, the Centre for National Resistance, which is an arm of Ukraine’s military, said the reports are a Russian propaganda “operation aimed at distracting the Defence Forces of Ukraine”.

"No relevant movements of enemy troops have been recorded," it said, and added that withdrawal from the region is only "a matter of time, and therefore in fact we only have a premature release".

The Institute for the Study of War said the retraction suggested that the Russian command and its state media apparatus has “failed to establish a coordinated information line for the Russian response to ongoing Ukrainian ground operations on the east bank”.

“The now-retracted reports of a Russian regrouping on the east bank of Kherson oblast may be indicative of actual discussions taking place in the high echelons of Russian military command that may have prematurely entered the information space before being officially released by the Russian military,” the ISW said in its latest update on Monday.

However, this could be Russia’s deliberate ploy to stir misinformation and confusion among Ukrainian forces.

“Alternatively, the Russian military command may have instructed state media to release and then retract these reports as part of an information operation that aims to have Ukrainian forces underestimate available Russian manpower on the east bank of Kherson oblast,” the ISW said.