Ukraine’s desperate battle to keep vital eastern stronghold out of Putin’s hands

The Kremlin wants a military victory to shout about as Ukraine’s shortage of weapons has allowed Russia’s troops to advance. Askold Krushelnycky reports

Ukrainian troops fire a rocket at Russian forces in the Donetsk region (Reuters)

Ukrainian forces face a desperate fight to keep hold of the vital eastern town of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region – as Russia intensifies attempts to snatch a symbolic military victory in the coming two weeks.

The prize it seeks is the fortress town, sitting on high ground. If captured by Russian forces, its elevation will allow Moscow’s artillery to freely target the last four important towns – Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka – still in Ukrainian hands in the region.

Success there would bring the Kremlin closer to achieving its oft-stated goal to control the entire Donetsk region. And Moscow does not appear concerned about throwing waves of troops at the front line to make headway. These assaults by infantry have been accompanied by tanks, other armoured personnel carriers, soldiers on motorcycles and Mad Max-style quad-bike vehicles.

A source close to the Ukrainian presidential administration told The Independent: “Human life is the cheapest resource for the Russians and they have kept sending their men to their deaths for weeks. There are no political consequences for them, unlike in Ukraine where we don’t use our people as cannon fodder.”

The Independent’s source said the Kremlin wants a win by 9 May, when Moscow commemorates the Soviet Union’s victory over the Nazis in the Second World War. Other symbolic dates include 7 May, Vladimir Putin’s presidential inauguration following an election last month, and the days before his visit to Beijing later this month.

Ukrainian servicemen ride on an armoured personnel carrier in a field near Chasiv Yar (AFP/Getty)

The source said: “The Russians are unlikely to capture Chasiv Yar next week but they might be able to enter part of the town, take a photograph with a Russian flag and the Kremlin propagandists will portray this as a great victory.”

Russia has taken advantage of a dramatic reduction in weapons supplies over the past six months to Ukraine by its foremost ally, America, to capture ground. The hold-up in military aid because of bitter political wrangling in the US Congress has now been resolved but it will likely take weeks for supplies – critically, of ammunition for Ukraine’s artillery and ground attack rocket systems as well as for Patriot and other air defences – to return to former levels.

The shortages allowed Russia to capture the town of Avdiivka in February. Ukraine had successfully defended it since 2014 but its forces were overwhelmed because of the lack of ammunition which left the Russians able to fire five to 10 shells for every one fired by the Ukrainians.

Since Avdiivka fell, the Russians have reinforced their positions with new troops. While Ukrainians have increasingly been forced to rely on drones as a substitute for artillery, Russian forces have been able to pummel Ukrainian positions with seemingly limitless supplies of artillery ammunition, missiles, rockets and conventional aerial bombs weighing up to a ton and a half adapted with wings and guidance systems into “glide bombs”.

Although in the past fortnight, Ukrainian forces have been squeezed out of some positions near Avdiivka and further west, they have fallen back to prepared defensive lines and the Russians have been unable to make any game-changing breakthroughs.

Ukrainians had hoped that the resumption of US weapons supplies would allow them to resist the massive onslaught on Chasiv Yar but the supply chain has not revived fast enough. Major General Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, HUR, said in an interview that Russia’s forces have seemingly been ordered to “take something” in time for one of the symbolic May dates.

Ukrainian servicemen recently returned from the trenches of Bakhmut walk down a Chasiv Yar street (AP)

“Our problem is very simple: we have no weapons,” Maj Gen Skibitsky added. “They always knew April and May would be a difficult time for us.”

Russia has recently deployed fresh troops, including elite airborne forces, to the battle for Chasiv Yar. Maj Gen Skibitsky said Russia’s superiority in manpower and huge reserves of weapons and ammunition means “it is probably a matter of time before that city falls in a similar way to Avdiivka, bombed to oblivion by the Russians…”

Taking Chasiv Yar will provide the Russians with a platform for what the officer says is their plan to take “all of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, a task unchanged since 2022”.

Ukraine’s most effective air defence weapons are Western-provided, notably, the Patriot systems which have suffered from a lack of ammunition. That has allowed the Russians to increase the number of drones and missiles – including ballistic – that have reached their targets. These strikes have caused extensive damage to Ukraine’s important infrastructure, chiefly electricity-generating facilities, and sought to terrorise the civilian population by targeting residential areas and city centres.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said Moscow had launched more than 300 Iranian-made Shahed drones, 300 other types of missiles and more than 3,200 glide bombs in April.

While America and some others of Kyiv’s allies have stipulated that long-range weapons they provide should not be used to strike targets within Russia, Britain’s foreign secretary, David Cameron, has said the UK does not have such objections. Ukraine has sought to strike into Russia to hit parts of Moscow’s economy, including oil production and storage facilities and locations like airfields to try and reduce the ability to hit Ukraine. This has only ramped up as the frontline situation has become tougher.

On a visit to Kyiv earlier this week, Lord Cameron said: “In terms of what the Ukrainians do, in our view, it is their decision about how to use these weapons. They’re defending their country, they were illegally invaded by Putin, and they must take those steps.

“We don’t discuss any caveats that we put on those things. But let’s be absolutely clear: Russia has launched an attack into Ukraine and Ukraine absolutely has the right to strike back at Russia.”

Asked if that included targets inside Russia, he said: “That’s a decision for Ukraine and Ukraine has that right. Just as Russia is striking inside Ukraine, you can quite understand why Ukraine feels the need to make sure it’s defending itself, it’s getting the Russians out of its country and it has the ability to strike back.”