Ukraine needs to keep Russia guessing to stay one step ahead of Pinocchio Putin’s propaganda machine

We may – or may not – have seen the start of Kyiv’s counteroffensive, writes Chris Stevenson. That haziness is crucial to Ukraine

A Ukrainian soldier fires a mortar at Russian positions on the frontline in Donetsk (AP)

Whether or not the attacks on Russian lines in the eastern region of Donetsk end up being seen as the start of Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive, the information war around them is in full swing.

For Russia’s defence ministry, its troops repelled a “major offensive” in Donetsk, killing 250 members of the Ukrainian forces and destroying a number of tanks and armoured vehicles at five points across the region’s frontline. Moscow was bullish, as it always is – but Russia’s community of military bloggers was more circumspect. Igor Girkin, one of the better known such personalities, said the official statements were “not quite true” and that “the enemy managed to cut into our position” and make some territorial gains. He was not the only one, with the various reports undercutting the sanitised Kremlin narrative.

Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, along with his defence officials and military chiefs, was always going to try to wring what propaganda he could out of Ukraine’s military movements. After 15 months and a winter offensive of Russia’s own that swiftly became a war of attrition as Ukrainian troops (mostly) held their lines, Putin needs a way to boost morale, and his claims about putting down “major” attacks play into that goal. There will be few in Russia who still believe Moscow is involved in a “special military operation”, as the Kremlin continues to insist on calling its invasion, rather than a full-scale war – and so positive news about the frontline will be key for Putin.