Isis leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is likely dead, say Turkish security officials

Syrian opposition fighters and activists on the Turkey-Syria border say they had heard that Isis confirmed his death at the town of Tal Afar

There is hesitation among officials to claim the death of Baghdadi

Security and military agencies in the frontline of the war against Isis are coming to the conclusion that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi may well have been killed two months ago in an air strike on the outskirts of Raqqa.

Russia, which carried out the attack, initially said that it was investigating whether the Isis chief had died when two of its warplanes hit a meeting at the southern edge of the capital of the “caliphate”. Up to 300 fighters and 30 field commanders were also said to have been killed in the ten minute missile salvo fired from two warplanes on 28 May.

There is hesitation among officials to claim the death of Baghdadi. He had been killed off in the past only to resurface later. However, towards the end of last month the Russian deputy foreign minister, Oleg Syromolotov, said it was “highly likely that he was eliminated in an air strike” and senior figures in the Russian military are now said to be convinced that was the case.

At the same time, Turkish officials say that they are receiving persistent reports that the head of Isis is dead. Ankara and Moscow have selectively worked together in Syria and the Russians are thought to have passed information to the Turks which led to the killing of Abdurakhmon Uzbeki, who organised the bombing of an Istanbul nightclub on New Year’s Eve. Uzbeki, a confidant of Baghdadi, was shot down in a raid by US Special Forces.

The British based monitoring group, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said on Tuesday that it was convinced that Baghdadi had been killed. Its director, Rami Abdulrahman, said: “We have confirmed information from leaders, including one of first rank who is Syrian, in the Islamic State in the eastern countryside of Deir al-Zor.”

Syrian opposition fighters and activists on the Turkey-Syria border said they had heard that Isis had confirmed the death at the town of Tal Afar and stated that a successor will be announced soon. This follows, they say, a lifting of a ban by the group on discussing the whereabouts of its leader, something which, it is claimed, resulted in public lashing in the past. There is, however, no corroboration of this.

In Iraq, Colonel Ryan Dillon, spokesman for the US military, said he could not confirm that Baghdadi had been killed: “We hope it is true and we strongly advise Isis to implement a strong line of succession. It will be needed.”

A senior Turkish official commented: “We have been hearing from a number of sources that Baghdadi may well have died. The Russians seem to think that is the case and we think some people in Daesh (Isis) also think that is the case. We have not yet seen any proof of this ourselves. But it is certainly a strong possibility, more so than it was even a few weeks ago.”

The Isis meeting attacked by the Russian aircraft, a SU-34 and SU-35, was being held, it is believed, to discuss plans of delaying the enemy with the use of suicide bombers and IEDs (improvised explosive devices) while escape routes were organised for the leadership. Up to six senior leaders, it has been claimed, were killed including Abu-al-Khadzhi al-Mysri, Ibrahim Haef al-Khadi and Suleiman al-Shuauakh, the group’s security chief.

The only public appearance of Baghdadi took place when he declared the creation of a caliphate during a sermon in Mosul in June 2014. He was believed to have been in the city before Iraqi forces, backed by the Americans, began the offensive to retake the city. Since then his whereabouts have been unknown, with reports that he was hiding in the desert rather than in any urban location.

There have been a number of reports in the past that Baghdadi had either been killed or injured. He was said to have been severely wounded in a US air strike in March 2015 and in May that year Isis threatened retribution for the attempt to kill its leader. Some subsequent terrorist attacks in Europe, it was claimed, were the results of this threat. There were reports in October last year that he and three other senior leaders of the group had been poisoned but had survived. There were also reports in May and June of this year that he had been badly wounded or killed.