Iran and US rivalry worsens as pandemic ravages both nations

While in the past disasters have given countries an opportunity to come together, Washington and Tehran are trying to exploit the current crisis as a chance for leverage – with dangerous results. Borzou Daragahi reports.

Nurses wearing protective suits look after a patient with coronavirus in Daneshvari Hospital, in Tehran, Iran (WANA via Reuters)

Security experts are warning that a once-in-a-century pandemic devastating both Iran and the United States has exacerbated rather than eased hostilities between the two countries, increasing the possibility of an armed conflict.

The outbreak of coronavirus has prompted unprecedented health and economic crises in both nations, sapping each of resources and manpower. Despite the disasters, both Washington and Tehran are escalating their years-long conflict. The US has upped sanctions and moved two battleship carrier groups into the Persian Gulf. Iran’s allies in Iraq and Yemen have increased attacks on Americans and their regional allies.

“They both seem to be doing the same thing and perceive opportunity here,” said Douglas London, a former CIA clandestine services official who now teaches at Georgetown University. “The leadership in both countries see a weakness they can leverage.”

In the past, disasters have been opportunities for both countries to come together despite their major differences. President George W Bush dispatched US medical personnel and relief supplies to aid Iranians after a major 2003 earthquake in Iran’s southeast. President Barack Obama loosened sanctions on Iran to allow aid to flow in after a 2012 earthquake.

But under the spell of a well-funded and tightly bound coven of Washington anti-Iran organisations that include the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and United Against Nuclear Iran, the Trump administration has tightened rather than eased sanctions on the country as it struggles with a pandemic, hoping that a campaign of “maximum pressure” will force Iran to the negotiating table or change its behaviours.

It has also rejected pleas by staunch US allies in Europe and former officials across the political spectrum to help Iran, vetoing a request for a $5bn (£4.1bn) International Monetary Fund loan. The pandemic has crippled Iran, flooding hospitals and intensive care units, and killing at least 3,872 people, the highest death toll in the Middle East. Iran has pleaded for international help, but says it has been hampered by sanctions that have depleted its resources and banking restrictions that have complicated aid organisations from contributing.

Citing years-old reports disputed by many Iran experts, the Trump administration argues Iran is hoarding billions in funds controlled by supreme leader Ali Khamenei. As evidence its policies were working, the State Department on Monday distributed a press release citing a photo of graffiti on Tehran walls that reads, “The Islamic Republic in Iran is the real coronavirus”, which was posted to social media.

“On the US side, the people who have seized control of the Iran file think that any pressure is good pressure,” said Jarret Blanc, a former US State Department official under Obama and now a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment. “They think that Iran is under so much pressure as a result of Covid-19 that if they press further they can achieve some of these fantasies of de facto regime change.”

Iran, too, is under the sway of increasingly powerful hard-line security officials who have outflanked the pragmatist administration of president Hassan Rouhani. He and his outspoken foreign minister, Javad Zarif, negotiated the landmark 2015 nuclear deal with the US under Obama, but watch almost helplessly as their legacy is dismantled and they are politically discredited.

“Coronavirus is seen by security oriented people inside Iran as an opportunity to get some leverage and show that despite the ravaging impact of the pandemic the regime is able to fight back,” said Sanam Vakil, a scholar at Chatham House. “The security-minded policy actors are calculating that leverage building is the only way that Iran can be at the negotiating table and not completely have to submit or concede.”

Iran and the US nearly came to war earlier this year following the American assassination of Revolutionary Guard clandestine overseas services chief Qassem Suleimeni in a Baghdad drone strike. Iran retaliated by launching a barrage of missiles at US bases in Iraq, injuring scores of American personnel.

Both sides have chosen not to grab what could have been quite a valuable off-ramp from this crisis

Jarret Blanc, former US State Department official

But Iran has also vowed to exact further revenge on the US for the killing, which also felled the Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Iran’s armed allies in Iraq have resumed a campaign of strikes on American bases, killing two US soldiers and a British medic just as the US and its allies announce a withdrawal over coronavirus. Iran has also been accelerating its attempts to maintain political power in Baghdad by sabotaging prospects for American-backed nominee Adnan Zurfi from obtaining the premiership.

“It is likely that Iran’s efforts to sabotage his nomination will succeed – particularly in light of the US troop reduction and the sense that US influence in Iraq is waning,” said a note this week issued by the Soufan Group, a security consultancy.

Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen have also increased pressure on Saudi Arabia, intensifying a ground offensive and launching missile strikes on Riyadh late last month for the first time since last autumn.

It’s all likely part of a calculated attempt by Tehran to make the Trump administration’s Middle East policies appear to be a flop ahead of November US presidential elections.

“They don’t want to give an impression that maximum pressure has been a success,” said one former US official. “They want to show that maximum pressure is failing. They know they can hurt Trump by making it seen like the Middle East is spinning out of control.”

The danger is that both countries have had their intelligence capabilities severely stymied by disease, increasing the potential for miscalculation. The US capital, Washington, is among the cities most hard hit by Covid-19, with more than 7,000 cases reported in the metropolitan area.

“Given Covid-19’s impact on manpower, resources and the operational environments at both ends, neither country has its best capacity to collect and analyse intelligence,” said Mr London. “So you’re kind of flying blind just when it’s most critical to avoid miscalculation

Several observers have pointed out the absurdity and tragedy of escalating the conflict at a time when much of the world is struggling to come together to fight a pandemic, as if space aliens had attacked humanity and both Iran and the US decided they’d rather fight side with the aliens against each other.

Both sides have some half-hearted conciliatory gestures. The US, which is set to be the country with the highest Covid-19 death toll, has offered Iran some aid, which Tehran rejected. Iranians voiced solidarity with New York City among other nations and locales afflicted with the pandemic during a light show at a Tehran monument. But the chances of any of this leading to a breakthrough are slim.

“Both sides have chosen not to grab what could have been quite a valuable off-ramp from this crisis,” said Mr Blanc.